Purpose This paper aims to provide a predictive framework of customer churn through six stages for accurate prediction and preventing customer churn in the field of business. Design/methodology/approach The six stages are as follows: first, collection of customer behavioral data and preparation of the data; second, the formation of derived variables and selection of influential variables, using a method of discriminant analysis; third, selection of training and testing data and reviewing their proportion; fourth, the development of prediction models using simple, bagging and boosting versions of supervised machine learning; fifth, comparison of churn prediction models based on different versions of machine-learning methods and selected variables; and sixth, providing appropriate strategies based on the proposed model. Findings According to the results, five variables, the number of items, reception of returned items, the discount, the distribution time and the prize beside the recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) variables (RFMITSDP), were chosen as the best predictor variables. The proposed model with accuracy of 97.92 per cent, in comparison to RFM, had much better performance in churn prediction and among the supervised machine learning methods, artificial neural network (ANN) had the highest accuracy, and decision trees (DT) was the least accurate one. The results show the substantially superiority of boosting versions in prediction compared with simple and bagging models. Research limitations/implications The period of the available data was limited to two years. The research data were limited to only one grocery store whereby it may not be applicable to other industries; therefore, generalizing the results to other business centers should be used with caution. Practical implications Business owners must try to enforce a clear rule to provide a prize for a certain number of purchased items. Of course, the prize can be something other than the purchased item. Business owners must accept the items returned by the customers for any reasons, and the conditions for accepting returned items and the deadline for accepting the returned items must be clearly communicated to the customers. Store owners must consider a discount for a certain amount of purchase from the store. They have to use an exponential rule to increase the discount when the amount of purchase is increased to encourage customers for more purchase. The managers of large stores must try to quickly deliver the ordered items, and they should use equipped and new transporting vehicles and skilled and friendly workforce for delivering the items. It is recommended that the types of services, the rules for prizes, the discount, the rules for accepting the returned items and the method of distributing the items must be prepared and shown in the store for all the customers to see. The special services and reward rules of the store must be communicated to the customers using new media such as social networks. To predict the customer behaviors based on the data, the future researchers should use the boosting method because it increases efficiency and accuracy of prediction. It is recommended that for predicting the customer behaviors, particularly their churning status, the ANN method be used. To extract and select the important and effective variables influencing customer behaviors, the discriminant analysis method can be used which is a very accurate and powerful method for predicting the classes of the customers. Originality/value The current study tries to fill this gap by considering five basic and important variables besides RFM in stores, i.e. prize, discount, accepting returns, delay in distribution and the number of items, so that the business owners can understand the role services such as prizes, discount, distribution and accepting returns play in retraining the customers and preventing them from churning. Another innovation of the current study is the comparison of machine-learning methods with their boosting and bagging versions, especially considering the fact that previous studies do not consider the bagging method. The other reason for the study is the conflicting results regarding the superiority of machine-learning methods in a more accurate prediction of customer behaviors, including churning. For example, some studies introduce ANN (Huang et al., 2010; Hung and Wang, 2004; Keramati et al., 2014; Runge et al., 2014), some introduce support vector machine ( Guo-en and Wei-dong, 2008; Vafeiadis et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2011) and some introduce DT (Freund and Schapire, 1996; Qureshi et al., 2013; Umayaparvathi and Iyakutti, 2012) as the best predictor, confusing the users of the results of these studies regarding the best prediction method. The current study identifies the best prediction method specifically in the field of store businesses for researchers and the owners. Moreover, another innovation of the current study is using discriminant analysis for selecting and filtering variables which are important and effective in predicting churners and non-churners, which is not used in previous studies. Therefore, the current study is unique considering the used variables, the method of comparing their accuracy and the method of selecting effective variables.

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PurposeImproving the performance of recommender systems (RSs) has always been a major challenge in the area of e-commerce because the systems face issues such as cold start, sparsity, scalability and interest drift that affect their performance. Despite the efforts made to solve these problems, there is still no RS that can solve or reduce all the problems simultaneously. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide an effective and comprehensive RS to solve or reduce all of the above issues, which uses a combination of basic customer information as well as big data techniques.Design/methodology/approachThe most important steps in the proposed RS are: (1) collecting demographic and behavioral data of customers from an e-clothing store; (2) assessing customer personality traits; (3) creating a new user-item matrix based on customer/user interest; (4) calculating the similarity between customers with efficient k-nearest neighbor (EKNN) algorithm based on locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) approach and (5) defining a new similarity function based on a combination of personality traits, demographic characteristics and time-based purchasing behavior that are the key incentives for customers' purchases.FindingsThe proposed method was compared with different baselines (matrix factorization and ensemble). The results showed that the proposed method in terms of all evaluation measures led to a significant improvement in traditional collaborative filtering (CF) performance, and with a significant difference (more than 40%), performed better than all baselines. According to the results, we find that our proposed method, which uses a combination of personality information and demographics, as well as tracking the recent interests and needs of the customer with the LSH approach, helps to improve the effectiveness of the recommendations more than the baselines. This is due to the fact that this method, which uses the above information in conjunction with the LSH technique, is more effective and more accurate in solving problems of cold start, scalability, sparsity and interest drift.Research limitations/implicationsThe research data were limited to only one e-clothing store.Practical implicationsIn order to achieve an accurate and real-time RS in e-commerce, it is essential to use a combination of customer information with efficient techniques. In this regard, according to the results of the research, the use of personality traits and demographic characteristics lead to a more accurate knowledge of customers' interests and thus better identification of similar customers. Therefore, this information should be considered as a solution to reduce the problems of cold start and sparsity. Also, a better judgment can be made about customers' interests by considering their recent purchases; therefore, in order to solve the problems of interest drifts, different weights should be assigned to purchases and launch time of products/items at different times (the more recent, the more weight). Finally, the LSH technique is used to increase the RS scalability in e-commerce. In total, a combination of personality traits, demographics and customer purchasing behavior over time with the LSH technique should be used to achieve an ideal RS. Using the RS proposed in this research, it is possible to create a comfortable and enjoyable shopping experience for customers by providing real-time recommendations that match customers' preferences and can result in an increase in the profitability of e-shops.Originality/valueIn this study, by considering a combination of personality traits, demographic characteristics and time-based purchasing behavior of customers along with the LSH technique, we were able for the first time to simultaneously solve the basic problems of CF, namely cold start, scalability, sparsity and interest drift, which led to a decrease in significant errors of recommendations and an increase in the accuracy of CF. The average errors of the recommendations provided to users based on the proposed model is only about 13%, and the accuracy and compliance of these recommendations with the interests of customers is about 92%. In addition, a 40% difference between the accuracy of the proposed method and the traditional CF method has been observed. This level of accuracy in RSs is very significant and special, which is certainly welcomed by e-business owners. This is also a new scientific finding that is very useful for programmers, users and researchers. In general, the main contributions of this research are: 1) proposing an accurate RS using personality traits, demographic characteristics and time-based purchasing behavior; 2) proposing an effective and comprehensive RS for a “clothing” online store; 3) improving the RS performance by solving the cold start issue using personality traits and demographic characteristics; 4) improving the scalability issue in RS through efficient k-nearest neighbors; 5) Mitigating the sparsity issue by using personality traits and demographic characteristics and also by densifying the user-item matrix and 6) improving the RS accuracy by solving the interest drift issue through developing a time-based user-item matrix.

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