14

No abstract

Reducing industrial energy demand and improving resource efficiency could make a substantial contribution towards the UK government's goal of achieving 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, while simultaneously improving productivity and creating employment opportunities. In this context, the government released its ‘Clean Growth Strategy’ in October 2017, although it has a number of limitations. The associated technology roadmaps exhibit quite large uncertainties, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions over the long term will depend critically on the adoption of a small number of key technologies, alongside the ‘decarbonisation’ of electricity supply. ‘Circular economy’ interventions have the potential to make significant energy savings that are complementary to other energy-efficiency measures. However, the task for both industrial and policy decision makers will still be challenging.

No abstract

This study quantifies the increase in the peak power demand, net of non-dispatchable generation, that may be required by widespread adoption of heat pumps. Electrification of heating could reduce emissions but also cause a challenging increase in peak power demand. This paper expands on previous studies by quantifying the increase in greater detail; considering a wider range of scenarios, the characteristics of heat pumps and the interaction between wind generation and demand side management. A model was developed with dynamic simulations of individual heat pumps and dwellings.The increase in peak net-demand is highly sensitive to assumptions regarding the heat pumps, their installation, building fabric and the characteristics of the grid. If 80% of dwellings in the UK use heat pumps, peak net-demand could increase by around 100% (54GW) but this increase could be mitigated to 30% (16GW) by favourable conditions. Demand side management could reduce this increase to 20%, or 15% if used with extensive thermal storage. If 60% of dwellings use heat pumps, the increase in peak net-demand could be as low as 5.5GW.High-performance heat pumps, appropriate installation and better insulated dwellings could make the increase in peak net-demand due to the electrification of heating more manageable. Highlights Widespread (80% of dwellings) use of heat pumps could increase UK peak net electrical demand by 100%. A combination of measures could reduce this peak increase to approximately 30%. Demand side management has potential to further reduce the peak increase to 20%. Extensive thermal storage could further reduce the peak increase to 15%. The increase in peak net-demand due to 60% of dwellings using ASHPs could be as low as 5.5GW.