No abstract

The demand for oil in China has dramatically increased in the last years. Today, China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world behind the United States. This growing demand in oil comes in a context of steep international price hikes for oil. With its increasing oil consumption, China today plays a major role on the international oil markets, and a change in its consumption could seriously destabilise these markets. Moreover, today China occupies a preponderant place on the international scene, and a large drop in its economic activity could significantly affect world growth. It, therefore, is important for us to ask what the impact of the current increase in oil prices on the Chinese economy might be. The aim of this article is to conduct a quantitative analysis on the potential impact of the rise in oil prices on the Chinese economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral effects are evaluated with the help of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Two scenarios were formulated: the first assuming a US $10 increase in international oil prices; the second, a $25 increase. Copyright 2007 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Economists have a long argue that institutions and implementation of good governance are important for economic growth. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that one of positive institutions effects is its ability to mitigate the negative effect of economic vulnerability linked to terms of trade fluctuations on economic growth. The impact of the economic vulnerability and implementation of good governance are estimated for a panel of 15 Sub-Saharan-Africa countries over the period 1996-2011. The results show that good institutional quality helps to undermine the negative effects of economic vulnerability on economic growth. It is also clear from this analysis that the interaction terms between trade openness and institutions can reduce the negative effects of economic vulnerability and that trade openness has a positive effect on economic growth only until a certain level of institutional quality.