Cox proportional hazards (PH) is known as the most popular model for the analysis of multivariate survival data. The main assumption of the model is that the hazard ratio among any two individuals in the population is constant over time. The violation of this assumption, however, may cause serious issues such as overestimation or underestimation of hazard risks and reducing the power of related statistical tests. The main objective of this research, therefore, is to extend the Cox PH model by adding time-dependent variables into the model to cope with the presence of non-PH. The proposed model, moreover, is applied to under-five mortality data based on Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) 2012. The results showed that the Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values of the extended Cox model with time-dependent variables are much lower than the Cox PH model. This means that the extended Cox model can increase significantly the goodness-of-fit of the Cox PH model to under-five mortality data in Indonesia.
Secara umum masyarakat Desa Kerinjing memiliki pengetahuan tentang perdagangan orang namun tidak memiliki wawasan yang luas tentang bahayanya dan modus-modusnya. Masyarakat Desa Kerinjing tidak pernah mendapatkan sosialisasi terkait hal tersebut sehingga tidak sedikit dari mereka pergi bekerja ke luar negeri dengan cara non prosedural yang dapat menjadikan mereka korban perdagangan orang. Karena itu perlunya diberikan pemahaman yang luas terkait ancaman perdagangan orang dan pencegahan tindak pidana perdagangan orang melalui sosialisasi dan Forum Group Discussion (FGD) di Desa Kerinjing Tanjung Raja Kabupaten Ogan Ilir. Kegiatan ini dilakukan dengan harapan tidak ada yang menjadi korban sekaligus mencegah agar masyarakat tidak menjadi oknum-oknum pelaku kejahatan tersebut. Setelah memberikan pemahaman, tim pengabdian juga melanjutkan dengan menguji pemahaman tersebut melalui pre-test dan post-test. Hasil dari kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa terdapat masyarakat Desa Kerinjing yang pernah menjadi korban tanpa sadar karena itu perlunya dilakukan peningkatan pengetahuan, pemahaman serta kesadaran masyarakat akan hukum dan penanggulangan perdagangan orang.
The downstreaming option to provide added value to local industries, especially developing countries in the Global Value Chain (GVC) era as a way to increase competitiveness and seizing global markets, is inevitable. This paper focus on the analysis of the developments and limitations faced in the implementation of the Strategic Policy of South Sumatra Rubber Product Downstreaming with the establishment of Tanjung Api-Api Special Economic Zone. At the regional level, the idea of developing SEZ (Special Economic Zone) aims to prepare investment institutions in improving the investment climate in Southeast Asia region and manifesting ASEAN as a single market and production base as a component of the 2015 ASEAN Economic Community. This study used an exploratory and descriptive qualitative research method, where the depth and context of the data are important. Data from this study consisted of secondary data through literature study and analysis of documents and primary data obtained from interview as well as through field research. The author concludes that the industrial downstreaming of rubber products in South Sumatra has not been maximally carried out, it was still segmented, it was not conducted linearly, both production and coordination between the central government and the locals. Tanjung Api-Api SEZ as a hub for international trade and industrialization of rubber commodities also encountered various obstacles including infrastructure (deep sea port) at this point was inadequate, certainty of fiscal incentives for companies relocating to SEZ and licensing.
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