Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract. We examine the impact of natural disasters on economic growth by applying a synthetic control approach. In contrast to previous literature, we adopt a within-country perspective, which allows us to use richer and more comparable data and to better define the geographic area hit by the disaster. We examine two large-scale earthquakes that occurred in two different Italian regions in 1976 and 1980. According to our findings, the short-term effects are negligible in both regions, though they become negative if we simulate the GDP that would have been observed in absence of financial aid. In the longterm, the two regions show opposite effects on GDP per capita, largely reflecting different patterns of the TFP. These opposing outcomes are consistent with the idea that a quake (and related financial aid) might either increase technical efficiency via a disruptive creation mechanism or reduce it by stimulating corruption, distorting the markets and deteriorating social capital. We show that the latter case is more likely to occur in areas with lower pre-quake institutional quality. Moreover, institutional quality itself changes in response to the shock and these patterns are correlated to those of the TFP. Overall, our evidence suggests that natural disasters are likely to exacerbate regional differences in economic and social development.
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