The mission of the Economic and Social Research InsStute (ESRI) is to advance evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland. ESRI researchers apply the highest standards of academic excellence to challenges facing policymakers, focusing on 12 areas of criScal importance to 21st-century Ireland.The InsStute was founded in 1960 by a group of senior civil servants led by Dr T.K. Whitaker, who idenSfied the need for independent and in-depth research analysis to provide a robust evidence base for policymaking in Ireland. Since then, the InsStute has remained commiYed to independent research and its work is free of any expressed ideology or poliScal posiSon.The InsStute publishes all research reaching the appropriate academic standard, irrespecSve of its findings or who funds the research. The quality of its research output is guaranteed by a rigorous peer-review process. ESRI researchers are experts in their fields and are commiYed to producing work that meets the highest academic standards and pracSces. The work of the InsStute is disseminated widely in books, journal arScles and reports. ESRI publicaSons are available to download, free of charge, from its website. AddiSonally, ESRI staff communicate research findings at regular conferences and seminars.The ESRI is a company limited by guarantee, answerable to its members and governed by a council comprising 14 members who represent a cross-secSon of ESRI members from academia, civil services, state agencies, businesses and civil society. The InsStute receives an annual grant-in-aid from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform to support the scienSfic and public-interest elements of the InsStute's acSviSes; the grant accounted for an average of 30 per cent of the InsStute's income over the lifeSme of the last research strategy. The remaining funding comes from research programmes supported by government departments and agencies, public bodies and compeSSve research programmes.Further informaSon is available at www.esri.ie direcSon in compleSng this analysis. In parScular, the authors would like to thank Deirdre Coy and Tiago McCarthy from the Department of Health for their valuable insights. The authors also acknowledge the contribuSon of Anne Nolan of the ESRI. Valuable comments on the text and suggesSons for revision were provided by three anonymous reviewers. We thank all those who provided contribuSons while acknowledging that the authors bear sole responsibility for the analysis and interpretaSons presented.This report has been accepted for publica3on by the Ins3tute, which does not itself take ins3tu3onal policy posi3ons. All ESRI Research Series reports are peerreviewed prior to publica3on. The author(s) are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed.

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This Article outlines and assesses changes to the tax and welfare system announced as part of Budget 2022. It first looks at the main taxation measures announced before turning to employment, education and social welfare supports. It then considers the effect of the package of measures as a whole on the incomes of households using representative survey data from the Survey of Incomes and Living Conditions run on SWITCH – the ESRI’s tax and benefit microsimulation model – and ITSim – an indirect tax microsimulation model developed jointly by the ESRI and the Department of Finance. The Article concludes with some brief reflections on inflation forecasts and the policy-making process.

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