ANALISIS TINGKAT SEISMISITAS DAN TINGKAT KERAPUHAN BATUAN DI MALUKU UTARA ABSTRAK Telah dilakukan penelitian untuk menentukan tingkat seismisitas dan tingkat kerapuhan batuan melalui perhitungan nilai a dan b secara spasial di Maluku Utara menggunakan katalog gempa ANSS tahun 1963-2015 dengan metode maksimum likelihood, menghitung kemungkinan waktu terjadinya kembali gempa bumi merusak secara spasial, serta untuk menenentukan daerah-daerah yang sangat rawan berpotensi gempa merusak di wilayah Maluku Utara. Perhitungan nilai a dan b dari data ANSS untuk wilayah Maluku Utara menunjukkan besar nilai b adalah berkisar pada 0,75-1,5 dan nilai a adalah berkisar pada 6,5-10. Periode ulang gempa bumi untuk wilayah Maluku Utara dengan magnitude Mw = 6,5 adalah 3-19 tahun, gempa dengan magnitude Mw = 7 adalah 5-52 tahun, dan gempa dengan magnitude Mw = 7,5 adalah 15-140 tahun. Daerah-daerah yang berpotensi mengalami gempa bumi merusak adalah wilayah Laut Maluku, Ternate, Tidore, sebagian wilayah Kabupaten Halmahera Utara dan Barat, Pulau Kasiruta dan Pulau Obi. Kata kunci: nilai-b, seismisitas, maximum likelihood ANALYSIS OF SEISMICITY LEVEL AND ROCKS FRAGILITY LEVEL IN NORTH MALUKU ABSTRACT A research has ben conducted to determine the seismicity level and rocks fragility level through spatially calculation of a value and b value in North Maluku using ANSS earthquake catalog of years 1963-2015 with maximum likelihood method, spatially calculate possible time of destructive earthquake recurrence, and to determine areas that highly prone to potentially destructive earthquake in North Maluku. A value and b value calculation of ANSS data of North Maluku region shows that b value is in the range of 0.75-1.5 and a value is in the range of 6.5-10. Earthquake repetition period of North Maluku region based on ANSS data with magnitude Mw = 6.5 is 3-19 years, for earthquake with magnitude Mw = 7 is 5-52 years and for earthquake with magnitude Mw = 7.5 is 15-140 years. Areas that potentially have destructive earthquake is Molucca Sea region, Ternate, Tidore, parts of North and West Halmahera District, Kasiruta Island and Obi Island. Keywords: b value, seismicity, maximum likelihood
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