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The article describes the techniques and methods of application of the method of complex operational expert assessment of military- man-made threats in the United forces operation area during hostilities. As a result of the analysis of scientific sources, the key features of effective approaches and methods of assessing heterogeneous threats that are associated with man-made impacts and can lead to emergencies. The selection of criteria for a complex threat assessment is made, the procedure and factors used in the operational threat assessment are described. The main factors of negative impact of military-man-made threats on socio-ecological-economic systems, which are key in the formation of military-man-made threats, are presented. A hierarchical classification of factors of integrated operational threat assessment for the United forces operation area has been developed. A system of equations is obtained that will allow modeling the change of threats depending on the change of factors and evaluation criteria. This will allow for the rapid ranking of military-man-made threats to the United forces operation area.

The paper examines a mathematical model of threat assessment for potentially dangerous objects of critical infrastructure in the combat zone. Using the theory of graphs and the theory of probability, an approach is proposed that allows obtaining quantitative estimates and conducting an analysis of possible scenarios of the development of an emergency situation. This work will be useful in the development of different classes of ecological and man-made threat assessment mathematical models for critical infrastructure facilities in the war zone.

This paper proposes a scenario-based approach for control of multi-object dynamic system motion for the cases when the relative position of the objects relative each to other plays the primary role.