Using data of 26 cities in China from 2004 to 2017, the green total factor productivity is investigated by the SMM-GML method. The corresponding empirical analysis is conducted with the DID model. This paper investigates the relation between low-carbon pilot policy (LCC) and green total factor productivity and discusses the mediating effect of industrial structure and the number of R&D staff (RDS). First, we find that LCC has a significant effect on pilot cities’ GTFP. And, it also promotes GTFP via industrial structure. Second, LCC can improve industrial structure optimization and realization, and industrial structure realization affects GTFP significantly, while optimization cannot. Third, LCC cannot attract more RDS, and RDS harms local GDFP because of talent misallocation. At last, the rate of GTFP presented different upward trends in the order of non-eastern cities and eastern cities. The effect of LCC on GTFP is significant in non-eastern cities, but not eastern ones, which clearly demonstrates the imbalanced development of the green economy. Therefore, the governments of eastern and non-eastern regions should adopt different measures based on local conditions in industrial structure transformation and recruitment and strengthen environmental regulations to make the effect of the low-carbon policy lasting and promote GTFP growth balance in all regions.

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