We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample efficient among all unbiased estimators with a given strict upper break-down point. For general heavy-tailed models, we establish the asymptotic normality of the estimator under second order regular variation conditions and also show it is minimax rateoptimal in the Hall class of distributions. We also develop an automatic, data-driven method for the choice of the trimming parameter which yields a new type of robust estimator that can adapt to the unknown level of contamination in the extremes. This adaptive robustness property makes our estimator particularly appealing and superior to other robust estimators in the setting where the extremes of the data are contaminated. As an important application of the data-driven selection of the trimming parameters, we obtain a methodology for the principled identification of extreme outliers in heavy tailed data. Indeed, the method has been shown to correctly identify the number of outliers in the previously explored Condroz data set.

The Internet, as a global system of interconnected networks, carries an extensive array of information resources and services. Key requirements include good quality-of-service and protection of the infrastructure from nefarious activity (e.g. distributed denial of service-DDoS-attacks). Network monitoring is essential to network engineering, capacity planning and prevention / mitigation of threats.We develop an open source architecture, AMON (All-packet MONitor), for online monitoring and analysis of multi-gigabit network streams. It leverages the high-performance packet monitor PF RING and is readily deployable on commodity hardware. AMON examines all packets, partitions traffic into sub-streams by using rapid hashing and computes certain real-time data products. The resulting data structures provide views of the intensity and connectivity structure of network traffic at the timescale of routing. The proposed integrated framework includes modules for the identification of heavyhitters as well as for visualization and statistical detection at the time-of-onset of high impact events such as DDoS. This allows operators to quickly visualize and diagnose attacks, and limit offline and time-consuming post-mortem analysis. We demonstrate our system in the context of real-world attack incidents, and validate it against state-of-the-art alternatives. AMON has been deployed and is currently processing 10Gbps+ live Internet traffic at Merit Network. It is extensible and allows the addition of further statistical and filtering modules for real-time forensics.

In this paper, we consider the analysis of hybrid censored competing risks data, based on Cox's latent failure time model assumptions. It is assumed that lifetime distributions of latent causes of failure follow Weibull distribution with the same shape parameter, but different scale parameters. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown parameters can be obtained by solving a one-dimensional optimization problem, and we propose a fixed-point type algorithm to solve this optimization problem. Approximate MLEs have been proposed based on Taylor series expansion, and they have explicit expressions. Bayesian inference of the unknown parameters are obtained based on the assumption that the shape parameter has a log-concave prior density function, and for the given shape parameter, the scale parameters have BetaGamma priors. We propose to use Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples to compute Bayes estimates and also to construct highest posterior density credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to investigate the performances of the different estimators, and two data sets have been analysed for illustrative purposes.

Sparse deep neural networks have proven to be efficient for predictive model building in large-scale studies. Although several works have studied theoretical and numerical properties of sparse neural architectures, they have primarily focused on the edge selection. Sparsity through edge selection might be intuitively appealing; however, it does not necessarily reduce the structural complexity of a network. Instead pruning excessive nodes in each layer leads to a structurally sparse network which would have lower computational complexity and memory footprint. We propose a Bayesian sparse solution using spike-and-slab Gaussian priors to allow for node selection during training. The use of spike-and-slab prior alleviates the need of an ad-hoc thresholding rule for pruning redundant nodes from a network. In addition, we adopt a variational Bayes approach to circumvent the computational challenges of traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation. In the context of node selection, we establish the fundamental result of variational posterior consistency together with the characterization of prior parameters. In contrast to the previous works, our theoretical development relaxes the assumptions of the equal number of nodes and uniform bounds on all network weights, thereby accommodating sparse networks with layer-dependent node structures or coefficient bounds. With a layer-wise characterization of prior inclusion probabilities, we also discuss optimal contraction rates of the variational posterior. Finally, we provide empirical evidence to substantiate that our theoretical work facilitates layer-wise optimal node recovery together with competitive predictive performance.

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