As the carrier of global urbanization, urban land is the basic means of productivity and life of urban residents. Urban land management is of great significance to global climate change mitigation, improving ecological quality, promoting economic development, and ensuring sustainable urban development. At present, although studies on urban land management have accumulated at the global level, the differences in research methods, objectives, and perspectives have led to the fragmentation and confusion of research conclusions. Therefore, it is necessary to review the literature of urban land management, clarify the research contexts, grasp the research progress, and predict the research trends. Bibliometrics, as a quantitative analysis method of literature review analysis, is more comprehensive and objective than relying only on a literature review. It is of great value to grasp the topics and trends of the research field from an overall perspective. In this paper, the Bibliometrix R software package was used to conduct an econometric literature analysis on urban land management from 1979 to 2021, using the Web of Science database. The results showed that: (1) the annual scientific research output and citation frequency in the field of urban land management has generally increased. Combined with the annual change trend of scientific research output, urban land management research can be divided into three stages: the budding period, from 1979 to 1989, the development period, from 1990 to 2008, and the high-yield period, from 2009 to 2021. (2) The 129 countries/regions reviewed differed in their research output, and developed countries showed strong research. The United States, China, and Australia were the top three countries in terms of solo publications and cooperation publications. In addition, among the 16,270 authors, the top three authors were Pradhan, Zhao, and Li. (3) The top three keywords in the field of urban land management were “Management”, “City/Cities” and “Land Use”. The research topics can be divided into three stages. The first stage covers studies with topics of “Management”, “Urbanization” and “GIS”, from 1979 to 2013. From 2014 to 2018, the research topics were gradually enriched by “Urbanization”, “Impact”, “System”, “GIS”, “Management”, “Policy”, “Conservation” and “land”, with a trend towards multidisciplinary and multi-perspective comprehensive analyses. From 2019 to 2021, “Management” and “Climate Change” were the main topics.

Land use change has significant impacts on the regional and global environment; thus, in-depth research on the associated ecological risks is necessary for promoting ecological restoration and sustainable development. Xinjiang, China, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment, and this study aimed to predict the land use change in the region in 2030 under different scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and urban development, by using the PLUS model based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Based on the landscape structure of regional ecosystems, we developed a comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework by utilizing a combination of landscape disturbance index, vulnerability index, and loss index. This framework allowed us to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and variations of landscape ecological risks under different scenarios in 2030. The study results indicate the following: (1) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the primary landscape type in Xinjiang was unused land. However, significant changes were observed in the area of cultivated land, mainly due to the conversion of grassland and construction land. The expansion of construction land during the urbanization process resulted in a decline in ecological landscapes, such as grassland, thereby weakening the ecosystem’s stability. (2) Under different simulation scenarios, the urban development scenario primarily led to the conversion of unused land into construction land, which is beneficial for economic development. On the other hand, the ecological conservation scenario resulted in a modest increase in construction land and a transformation of unused land into forest and grassland, which aligns with the principles of sustainable development. (3) Different scenarios in 2030 result in varying degrees of changes in each landscape type in Xinjiang, with the spatial distribution characteristics of landscape ecological risks remaining similar to those observed in 2020. Notably, under the urban development scenario, the area of lowest and medium risk areas decreases significantly while the area of higher and highest risk areas increases substantially. Conversely, under the ecological conservation scenario, the area of the lowest risk areas experiences a more significant increase. (4) Overall, the spatial differences in the ecological risk of Xinjiang’s landscape are significant, with HH and LL clustering types predominating and presenting a polarization pattern. The distribution pattern is low in the north and high in the central and southern parts of the study area.