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This work established the fracture probability equation for JIS SM490A steel using the computational model supported by the local approach and the standard Crack Tip Opening Displacement (CTOD) fracture toughness experiments. As the experiments were conducted at a low temperature providing conditions for the brittle fracture, the specimen suffers a small plastic deformation until its failure. The computational model tries to represent the experiment results, estimating the scale and shape parameters of the Weibull distribution for the cumulative fracture probability equation. A procedure based on the local approach was executed to find the optimum values for the fracture probability equation. In addition, a plot was provided to show the distribution of likelihood values according to assumed values for the shape and scale parameters. In the end, a comparison between the experimental and predicted statistical distribution of critical CTOD was done successfully, indicating that material toughness can be predicted by the present model.

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