AbstrakLatar Belakang penelitian ini dibuat dimana semakin meningkatnya kebutuhan listrik di setiap kelompok tarif. Yang dimaksud dengan kelompok tarif dalam penelitian ini adalah kelompok tarif sosial, kelompok tarif rumah tangga, kelompok tarif bisnis, kelompok tarif industri dan kelompok tarif pemerintah. Prediksi merupakan kebutuhan penting bagi penyedia tenaga listrik dalam mengambil keputusan berkaitan dengan ketersediaan energi listik. Dalam melakukan prediksi dapat dilakukan dengan metode statistik maupun kecerdasan buatan. ARIMA merupakan salah satu metode statistik yang banyak digunakan untuk prediksi dimana ARIMA mengikuti model autoregressive (AR) moving average (MA). Syarat dari ARIMA adalah data harus stasioner, data yang tidak stasioner harus distasionerkan dengan differencing. Selain metode statistik, prediksi juga dapat dilakukan dengan teknik kecerdasan buatan, dimana dalam penelitian ini jaringan syaraf tiruan backpropagation dipilih untuk melakukan prediksi. Dari hasil pengujian yang dilakukan selisih MSE ARIMA, JST dan penggabungan ARIMA, jaringan syaraf tiruan tidak berbeda secara signifikan. Kata Kunci— ARIMA, jaringan syaraf tiruan, kelompok tarif. AbstractBackground this research was made where the increasing demand for electricity in each group. The meaning this group is social, the household, business, industry groups and the government fare. Prediction is an important requirement for electricity providers in making decisions related to the availability of electric energy. In doing predictions can be made by statistical methods and artificial intelligence. ARIMA is a statistical method that is widely used to predict where the ARIMA modeled autoregressive (AR) moving average (MA). Terms of ARIMA is the data must be stationary, the data is not stationary should be stationary use differencing. In addition to the statistical method, predictions can also be done by artificial intelligence techniques, which in this study selected Backpropagation neural network to predict. From the results of tests made the difference in MSE ARIMA, ANN and merging ARIMA, artificial neural networks are not significantly different. Keyword—ARIMA, neural network, tarif groups
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