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Nursing is the NHS's single largest staff group with over 300,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) registered nurses in the hospital and community sector. Nursing vacancies accounted for over a third of all FTE vacancies in NHS trusts in the quarter to June 2022. A lack of long-term planning and a coordinated workforce strategy has been acknowledged as a major factor for the shortfall. The Health Foundation commissioned Decision Analysis Services to develop a system dynamics model to represent the future supply of nurses across England. The model was designed to take a system-wide view of nurse supply and to consider second order effects The nurse supply model was used to generate projections of future nurse supply in England under three scenarios, with the results published in July 2022. The projections suggested that while the government appears to be on track to meet its 50,000 nurses target by 2023/24, this would still leave the NHS short of around 38,000 FTE nurses relative to projected demand in 2023/24.
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