Geothermal technology has a high level of uncertainty and, thus, requires thorough risk analysis for economic decisions. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is a basic economic analysis widely used in determining an investment or energy mix. Many reputable institutions and government agencies provide LCOE, to which they apply different levels of discount rates to reflect project risk. To this end, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is frequently used as a proxy for project risk-adjusted discount rate. However, whether using a higher discount rate for a riskier project is appropriate in calculating LCOE has not been scrutinized. The purpose of this paper is to propose a certainty equivalent method of LCOE as an alternative way for considering risk. We present a theoretical background and formula based on the utility theory, improving the probabilistic LCOE estimation methodology of previous studies. We also perform scenario analysis to show how the certainty equivalent model changes LCOE reflecting different level of risk of the individual variables, which traditional LCOE does not. Additionally, we suggest that the traditional LCOE should be used prudently, recognizing it can distort the result when an individual project has a different level of risk from the industry average.

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This study aimed to test, through empirical investigation, how the rapid advancement of digital transformation (DT) has impacted the price of financial services. To this end, we compiled a set of macro-level indicators on the aggregate outcomes of the financial services sector in Korea over the last three decades and conducted an analysis to gauge the effects of DT on the country using those indicators. Using the ARDL-ECM (autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model), we show that, over time, the unit cost of financial intermediation in Korea has tended to move in tandem with the growth in economic output, although the profit portion of the unit cost has not exhibited a long-term relationship with the GDP trend. The long-term effect of the DT trend is negative (i.e., cost-saving) for labor input, capital expenditure, and the total unit cost of financial intermediation, which are all shown to be statistically significant. Consequently, we conclude that DT contributed to enhancing consumer benefit, mainly by achieving the operational efficiency of labor and capital, from 1990 to 2019 in Korea. From a policy perspective, our finding implies that DT-driven innovation in the sector can benefit financial customers if excessive levels of profit are restrained through market competition.

Geothermal technology has a high level of uncertainty and, thus, requires thorough risk analysis for economic decisions. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is a basic economic analysis widely used in determining an investment or energy mix. Many reputable institutions and government agencies provide LCOE, to which they apply different levels of discount rates to reflect project risk. It is a proxy for the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Theoretically, determining whether using a higher discount rate for a risky project is appropriate in calculating LCOE has not been scrutinized. The purpose of this paper is to propose a certainty equivalent method of LCOE as an alternative way of reflecting risk. We present a theoretical background and formula based on the utility theory, improving the probabilistic LCOE estimation methodology of previous studies. We also perform scenario analysis to show how the LCOE with certainty equivalent model moves over the change of risk in major input factors, whereas traditional LCOE does not. Additionally, we suggest that the traditional LCOE should be used prudently, recognizing it can distort the result when an individual project has a different level of risk from the industry average.