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The development of the social aspect of the world community is closely related to the expansion of the range of digital services in cyberspace. A special place in which social networks occupy. The world's leading states are conducting information operations in this environment to achieve geopolitical goals. Such processes are reflected in real social and political life. This makes it possible to influence not only the social groups of society, but also to ensure manipulation in political "games" in the conduct of hybrid wars. The simultaneous interaction of social factors, influencing factors, the presence of communities in social networks forms a full-fledged socio-cyber-physical system capable of integrating real and virtual interactions to manage regional communities. The article proposes a method for predicting the assessment of social mutual influence between “formal” and “informal” leaders and regional societies. The proposed models make it possible to form not only a forecast of the influence of agents, but also the interaction of various agents, taking into account their formal and informal influences, the use of administrative resources, political moods of the regional society. This approach allows dynamic modeling based on impact and relationship analysis. The presented results of simulation modeling do not contradict the results of opinion polls and make it possible to form a set of measures that can be aimed at overcoming the negative impact on the regional society of both individual “leaders” and political parties. Analysis of the simulation results allows to increase both the political and social stability of the regional society, helps to prevent conflict moods and contradictions.

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The paper presents the results of the development of a method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems based on the Lotka–Volterra model. Security models of cyber-physical systems are proposed: “predator–prey” taking into account the computing capabilities and focus of targeted cyberattacks, “predator–prey” taking into account the possible competition of attackers in relation to the “prey”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationships between “prey species” and “predator species”, “predator–prey” taking into account the relationship between “prey species” and “predator species”. Based on the proposed approach, the coefficients of the Lotka–Volterra model α=0.39, β=0.32, γ=0.29, φ=0.27 were obtained, which take into account the synergy and hybridity of modern threats, funding for the formation and improvement of the protection system, and also allow determining the financial and computing capabilities of the attacker based on the identified threats. The proposed method for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems is based on the developed threat classifier, allows assessing the current security level and provides recommendations regarding the allocation of limited protection resources based on an expert assessment of known threats. This approach allows offline dynamic simulation, which makes it possible to timely determine attackers' capabilities and form preventive protection measures based on threat analysis. In the simulation, actual bases for assessing real threats and incidents in cyber-physical systems can be used, which allows an expert assessment of their impact on both individual security services and security components (cyber security, information security and security of information). The presented simulation results do not contradict the graphical results of the classical Lotka–Volterra model, which indicates the adequacy of the proposed approach for assessing the security of cyber-physical systems