The frequency of glacier lake outbursts floods (GLOFs) is likely to increase with the ongoing glacier retreat, which produces new glacial lakes and enlarges existing ones. Here, we simulate the outburst of a potentially dangerous glacial lake in Bhutan by applying hydrodynamic modelling. Although the lake volume is known, several parameters connected to the dam breach and the routing of the flood are rough estimates or assumptions, which introduce uncertainties in the results. For this reason, we create an ensemble of nine outburst scenarios. The simulation of magnitude and timing of possible inundation depths is an important asset to prepare emergency action plans. For our case study in the Mo Chu River Basin, the results show that, even under the worst case scenario, little damage to residential buildings can be expected. However, such an outburst flood would probably destroy infrastructure and farmland and might even affect the operation of a hydroelectric powerplant more than 120 km downstream the lake. Our simulation efforts revealed that, by using a 30-m elevation model instead of a 5-m raster, flood magnitude and inundation areas are overestimated significantly, which highly suggests the use of high-resolution terrain data. These results may be a valuable input for risk mitigation efforts.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.