This article provides an empirical contribution to deterrence analysis by evaluating the effect of tax audits on compliance taxpayer behaviors over the 2004 to 2009 period. We use two unique databases: the Tax Return Register (Anagrafe Tributaria) and Italian Revenue Agency (IRA) audits data, with a focus on self-employment and sole proprietorships. The difference-in-differences approach has been applied as estimation strategy to evaluate the effect of three IRA audit policies: on-site audit (i.e., soft audit), desk audit (i.e., deep audit), and a combination of on-site and desk audit activities. Our results show an overall positive effect of tax audits in terms of deterrence. In particular, the contemporaneous presence of soft and deep audits has the greatest effect on compliance reporting behaviors. Moreover, on-site audits show greater effects compared to desk audit activities. Reasons can be found in different purposes for which various policies are designed.

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Abstract This paper analyses the determinants of regional tax gap in Italy testing if tax evasion is characterised by spatial persistence. The size of spatial correlation in regional tax gaps has been tested and the role of additional determinants of evasion over the period 2001-2011 has been estimated. Using a dynamic spatial panel model, it is shown that regional tax gap is determined by tax evasion in neighbouring regions and is characterised by spatial persistence. Results make it possible to draw a taxonomy of the determinants of regional tax gap: contextual factors and operational factors linked to the relative efficacy of tax evasion contrasting policies and geography.