Purpose -The purpose of this paper is to model the trend of natural gas supply and demand in China in different circumstances from 1990 to 2050. Design/methodology/approach -The related factors were selected from references and classified into three categories such as endogenous, exogenous, and excluded factors. The three sub-models of supply, demand and their interconnection were built and integrated. The impacts of natural gas resources, the investment of gas industry and the energy structure over natural gas supply and demand were analyzed based on scenario analysis. Findings -The impact of energy structure in China is more evident compared to natural gas resources and the investment level.Research limitations/implications -Import and transportation of natural gas will have growing impacts on the supply and demand in China when the model is applied. Practical implications -A very useful method to analyze the equilibrium of natural gas supply and demand. Originality/value -The paper presents a new prediction model of natural gas supply and demand in system dynamics. The paper is aimed at the researchers and decision makers in energy industries, especially in the fields of energy prices. IntroductionIn the recent decades, the natural gas industry in China has developed quickly. The quickly developing natural gas exploitation and the increasingly perfect transportation network make the condition of large-scale usage of natural gas in China feasible. It can be predicted that soon the natural gas demand will increase, largely in the local market. That means the energy planning department and the institution that are related to the natural gas industry must carry on valid adjustment to the supply and demand, and solve the supply and demand antinomy which appears in some times and regions.On the basis of previous research, this paper analyzes the historical data of supply and demand in Chinese natural gas industry, combines the current condition, and builds up the supply and demand system dynamics model. Through the simulation result, the future supply and demand of the natural gas in China can be predicted, and the effect of related factors on the supply and demand can be obtained. (In terms of predictions, please refer to Lin and Liu (2005), Lin (2001) and OuYang et al. (2000) for some of the most recent development.) The related factors considered in this paper are shown in Figure 1.

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This paper reveals the mechanism of supplementary collection strategy for industrial buyers in a local supply market. A framework is presented to describe the economic behaviors, goals and interests of players in the market. Game theory is applied to investigate the willingness of suppliers and industrial buyers to seek strategies that promote the common interests; supplementary collection strategy is specially focused on sustainable biomass supply. The conclusion is that industrial buyers who adopt supplementary collection strategy will get more profits, but the supplementary collection strategy is lowly efficient in biomass utilization for the decision makers.