Purpose: This study aims to predict the impact that rapid demographic changes will have on the housing market in Korea if current trends in population, household size, and supply continue. Design/Methodology/Approach: Two hypotheses concerning the housing oversupply were formulated. Estimates of population, households, and housing are done using time-series analysis with ARIMA modelling. The determination of household-housing size distribution was analyzed by quantile regression model. Findings: The results indicate that there will be 612.7 houses per thousand people in Korea by 2045 and that the housing supply ratio will reach 140.2%. Furthermore, evidence suggests that there will be an oversupply of medium-to-large-sized dwellings. If current demographic and housing patterns continue, there could be devastating consequences. Practical Implications: This study urges awareness about the present shifts in population and household size and suggests that resultant changes in housing supply patterns are inevitable. Moreover, by presenting empirical figures, these findings could also lead to the implementation of concrete policies. Originality/Value: The study suggests that the continuation of current patterns may lead to serious problems, especially considering the fact that these population changes not only affect Korea but all countries that underwent rapid industrialization. Therefore, this study provides a good source of insight for other countries that are experiencing similar phenomena in Korea's wake, and it may help prepare them to address these issues.

Purpose This study aims to introduce the Youth Jeonse Rental Housing Program using the unique characteristics of the Korean housing market to explain its theoretical value in the current theoretical landscape of public housing and to identify the effect of the program on the regional housing price. Design/methodology/approach This study uses three hedonic price models on the basis of Korea’s housing market, namely, own, jeonse and rent models. Moreover, it uses the hierarchical linear model to include both house- and region-level variables. Findings Analysis shows that youth rental housing has no effect on falling prices in the region unlike long-term rental housing. Thus, the policies using regional tenure system are more effective in the social mix than existing public housing policies. Originality/value This study introduces the program using Korea’s unique tenure system called jeonse, arguing its advantages for the supplier, recipients and regional neighborhoods. Suppliers can easily provide affordable housing at a low economic and administrative cost, whereas recipients can easily mix socially, have broad housing choices and a fighting chance for a stable life. Additionally, this policy has a low negative impact on the region. Furthermore, this study theoretically presents the potential for mixed paths other than demand or supply policies. It introduces and analyzes special policy objectives for youth housing problems.

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