h i g h l i g h t sThe contingent behavior method is useful for analyzing the tourism demand recovery. Announcing safety information would be most effective policy. Income effects would change from negative to positive during the recovery process. Optimal steps include safety, event, and visitor information, and price discounting. JEL classification: D12 Z30 Z38Keywords: Natural disaster Tourism demand Recovery process Contingent behavior method a b s t r a c t This paper examines the applicability of contingent behavior (hereafter, CB) method for analyzing dynamic processes and efficient policies in tourism demand recovery. The CB questionnaires used for this study used a hypothetical disaster situation of bird flu in Kyoto, Japan. Safety, event, visitor information, and price discounting policies were designed accordingly. Respondents were then asked about their willingness to travel time. The results showed the optimal timing for devising pertinent policies during the year. We found that the first step requires a safety information announcement, within one week, immediately after disaster site decontamination. The second step is the implementation of event information policy within 24th to 36th week after the disaster. The third step constitutes announcing visitor information within the 37th to 52nd week after the second step. The final step is the implementation of price discounting policy, until the 52nd week, immediately after the third step.

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Benefit measurements have been performed on tourism activities on the basis of demand theory or random utility theory. Recently, the Kuhn-Tucker model (KTM), which can measure more flexible patterns of preferences, has been used for benefit measurement. The purpose of this study is to measure the benefits of tourism activities in Nara Prefecture by the KTM and examine the features of the model by comparing it with the demand-based approach (DBA) and the random utility model (RUM). The benefit ranges measured by the DBA, RUM and KTM methods are 4, 874,106 and 289-37,670 yen, respectively. Finally, the World Heritage Sites have larger benefits than the other sites.

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