The world economy is evolving towards multipolar globalization, and China has become a new pole of economic development. Ukraine, like other countries, is looking for ways to cooperate with China in the field of trade and investment. China, for its part, offers a model of cooperation within the framework of the OBOR (One Belt, One Road) initiative. Along with Chinese investment in transport and logistics infrastructure, OBOR aims to conclude FTAs with the countries participating in the initiative; thus, the article focuses on the issues of trade, and Ukraine’s industrial and innovation policy in the context of the OBOR initiative. A comparative analysis of both countries’ trade and industrial policies was conducted to provide a basis for evaluation. The terms of trade between Ukraine and China are not symmetrical due to the difference in the scale of the economy and trade. Additionally, Ukraine’s trade regime is relatively liberal, while the Chinese market is protected by higher tariff and non‑tariff barriers. Furthermore, the current situation in mutual trade is asymmetric. Ukraine exports mainly raw materials to China, while exports from China to Ukraine are dominated by investment and consumer goods. The import dependence of the Ukrainian economy, in general, is high without any noticeable signs of decline. In 2014–2018, the share of imports of goods and services in GDP in Ukraine averaged 54% (for comparison, in China, this parameter was 19%). In 2018, 55% of Ukraine’s negative balance in trade in goods was due to trade with China. China seeks to conclude FTAs under the OBOR initiative, but in the current context, the liberalization of trade regimes with China will result in Ukraine growing its raw material exports to China and increasing its dependence on Chinese imports. On the other hand, China’s investment, production, research, and technological opportunities can become an important resource for Ukraine to modernize its economy. Promising areas of Chinese investment include high technology, in particular, aviation, shipbuilding, bioengineering, the development of new materials, and more. Ukraine is interested in China’s experience in implementing a number of state programs in the field of innovation development of Chinese industrial enterprises. The support system for clusters, industrial parks, Free Economic Zones (FEZs), and technology parks can be recommended for introduction into Ukrainian legislation in the sphere of developing an innovation structure in Ukraine.

The losses and risks for Ukraine’s agricultural exports caused by the blockade of Ukrainian seaports by the Russian armed forces are assessed, the ways of the partial recovery of the agricultural export in the conditions of hostilities and post-war revival of export markets are substantiated. The consequences of war for the grain market are determined. It is established that Ukraine lost the opportunity to export almost a quarter of the volume of grain intended for export in 2021/22 marketing year. This situation pushes up world food prices and threatens the food security of low-income countries dependent on food imports. During the first two months of Russian military invasion, the relocation of the trade flows on the world agricultural markets has already begun, which in case of long-term hostilities might lead to a partial loss of export markets by Ukraine. The most obvious partial solution to this problem is the organization of special "green corridors" with the help of EU countries, which will allow Ukraine to export food through the ports of the Baltic Sea. In order to restore domestic exports, it is advisable to: i) negotiate further trade liberalization with trading partners, primarily the EU and the UK, in order to affirm temporary trade preferences that have been or are likely to be granted to Ukrainian exports; ii) simplify procedures of trade with the EU and Moldova in order to increase exports of agricultural products by railways and road transport; iii) support the Export Credit Agency activities in providing credits and insurance for exports of the processed agricultural products. At the same time, the situation with the agricultural exports blocking clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of the export-oriented commodity-based agriculture model in Ukraine and necessitated its replacement with a model capable to ensure sustainable agricultural and rural development.

Проаналізовано структуру торговельних потоків між Україною і Китаєм і об-Перспективи вільної торгівлі з Китаєм: розвиток вітчизняного...

Інститут економіки та прогнозування НАН України ЗМІНА ТРАДИЦІЙНИХ ПОЗИЦІЙ УКРАЇНСЬКОГО ЕКСПОРТУ Виокремлено глобальні тенденції та чинники, що формують актуальний стан світової торгівлі. Визначено головні компоненти зміни українського експорту в географічній структурі. Розглянуто особливості зовнішньої торгівлі з найбільш значними за обсягами українського експорту країнами та особливості зміни зовнішньоекономічної кон'юнктури на традиційних для українського експорту товарних ринках. Головний акцент у статті зроблено на викликах та ризиках витиснення українських експортерів з традиційних ринків, на підставі чого запропоновано заходи адаптації та підвищення конкурентоспроможності вітчизняних експортерів, зокрема, в частині додаткових інституційних інструментів зменшення нетарифних бар'єрів у зовнішній торгівлі 1. К л ю ч о в і с л о в а : світова торгівля, кон'юнктура, експорт, протекціонізм, нетарифні бар'єри, торговельні угоди, конкурентоспроможність.

No abstract