Abstract. Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease strongly associated with poverty. Treatment is problematic and no vaccine is available. Ethiopia has seen new outbreaks in areas previously not known to be endemic, often with co-infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with rates reaching 5.6% of the cases. The present study concerns the development of a risk model based on environmental factors using geographical information systems (GIS), statistical analysis and modelling. Odds ratio (OR) of bivariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors, accepting P ≤0.056 as the inclusion level for the model's environmental variables. When estimating risk from the viewpoint of geographical surface, slope, elevation and annual rainfall were found to be good predictors of CL presence based on both probabilistic and weighted overlay approaches. However, when considering Ethiopia as whole, a minor difference was observed between the two methods with the probabilistic technique giving a 22.5% estimate, while that of weighted overlay approach was 19.5%. Calculating the population according to the land surface estimated by the latter method, the total Ethiopian population at risk for CL was estimated at 28,955,035, mainly including people in the highlands of the regional states of Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Region, one of the nine ethnic divisions in Ethiopia. Our environmental risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 90.4%. The approach proposed here can be replicated for other diseases to facilitate implementation of evidence-based, integrated disease control activities.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL, Kala-azar) is one of the growing public health challenges in Ethiopia with over 3.2 million people at risk and estimated up to 4000 new cases per year. Historically, VL was known as the diseases of the lowlanders; in the lower and upper Kola agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. The 2005–07 out breaks in highlands of Libo Kemkem and Fogera, in the Woina Degas, that affected thousands and claimed the life of hundreds misdiagnosed as drug resistance malaria marked that VL is no more the problem of the lowlanders. The Kola (lower and upper) and the Woina Dega are the most productive agroecological zones, supporting both the ongoing and planned expansions of large or small scale agriculture and/or agriculture based industries. Thus, the (re)emergence of VL is not only a public health and social problem but also have a direct implication on the country’s economy and further development. Thus is high time for its control and/or elimination. Yet, the available data seem incomplete to plan for a cost-effective and efficient VL control strategy: there is a need to update data on vector behaviour in specific ecosystems and the roles of domestic animals need to be ascertained. The effectiveness and social acceptability of available vector control tools need be evaluated. There is a need for identifying animal reservoir(s), or establish the absence of zoonosis in Ethiopia. The planning of prevention of (re)emergence and spread of VL to areas adjacent to endemic foci need be supported with information from spatio-temporal mapping. In affected communities, available data showed that their knowledge about VL is generally very low. Thus, well designed studies to identify risk factors, as well as better tools for social mobilization with the understanding of their knowledge, aptitude and practice towards VL are necessary.

Abstract. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease strongly influenced by environmental factors, has (re)-emerged in Ethiopia during the last two decades and is currently of increasing public health concern. Based on VL incidence in each locality (kebele) documented from federal or regional health bureaus and/or hospital records in the country, geographical information systems (GIS), coupled with binary and multivariate logistic regression methods, were employed to develop a risk map for Ethiopia with respect to VL based on soil type, altitude, rainfall, slope and temperature. The risk model was subsequently validated in selected sites. This environmental VL risk model provided an overall prediction accuracy of 86% with mean land surface temperature and soil type found to be the best predictors of VL. The total population at risk was estimated at 3.2 million according to the national population census in 2007. The approach presented here should facilitate the identification of priority areas for intervention and the monitoring of trends as well as providing input for further epidemiological and applied research with regard to this disease in Ethiopia.

Abstract. Kala-azar is a growing public health problem in Ethiopia. Benishangul-Gumuz regional state was previously not known to be endemic for the disease. In response to a case report from the region, we conducted a rapid assessment survey. A pretested questionnaire was used to capture sociodemographic and clinical histories pertinent to kala-azar. Study participants with complaints of fever and headache for 2 weeks or more were tested for kala-azar and malaria. All participants were screened with the leishmanin skin test and the direct agglutination test for exposure to Leishmania, defined as a positive result with either or both tests. Of 275 participants, 20 were exposed giving an overall leishmaniasis seroprevalence rate of 7.3%. Among the 20 positive individuals, 19 were farmers and nine of them reported no travel history outside their district. It appears that kala-azar is emerging in Dangur and Guba districts of Benishangul-Gumuz regional state, probably in connection with human encroachment into one or several previously out-of-reach zoonotic foci. We recommend integrated epidemiological surveys for confirmation and early containment of disease transmission in the area.