This unique book is the first comprehensive guide to the discovery, analysis, and evaluation of natural experiments - an increasingly popular methodology in the social sciences. Thad Dunning provides an introduction to key issues in causal inference, including model specification, and emphasizes the importance of strong research design over complex statistical analysis. Surveying many examples of standard natural experiments, regression-discontinuity designs, and instrumental-variables designs, Dunning highlights both the strengths and potential weaknesses of these methods, aiding researchers in better harnessing the promise of natural experiments while avoiding the pitfalls. Dunning also demonstrates the contribution of qualitative methods to natural experiments and proposes new ways to integrate qualitative and quantitative techniques. Chapters complete with exercises and appendices covering specialized topics such as cluster-randomized natural experiments, make this an ideal teaching tool as well as a valuable book for professional researchers.

ResumenA pesar de que aún el concepto de clientelismo político es difuso, es una herramienta conceptual y metodológica útil para el análisis sobre política local. Tradicionalmente, la Ciencia Política ha producido trabajos basados en perspectivas teóricas y empíricas que han ayudado a comprender el fenómeno como un mecanismo de intermediación que se desarrolla a través de "redes clientelares", en las que se generan dinámicas y estrategias de trabajo para establecer relaciones con el entorno o con la ciudadanía en general. En estas relaciones se visualiza su mecanismo principal: el intercambio de recursos. La claridad sobre dichos aspectos facilita entender la forma como se ha ejercido la política en Colombia y la lógica que hoy predomina en su sistema político respecto a la competencia por el poder en escenarios locales. El estudio se realiza mediante la metodología cualitativa y su estrategia de revisión documental, lo que permite realizar una comparación conceptual permanente. Palabras clave

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S ocial scientists often attribute moderation of the political salience of ethnicity in ethnically diverse societies to the presence of cross-cutting cleavages-that is, to dimensions of identity or interest along which members of the same ethnic group may have diverse allegiances. Yet, estimating the causal effects of cross-cutting cleavages is difficult. In this article, we present experimental results that help explain why ethnicity has a relatively minor political role in Mali, an ethnically heterogeneous sub-Saharan African country in which ethnic identity is a poor predictor of vote choice and parties do not form along ethnic lines. We argue that the cross-cutting ties afforded by an informal institution called "cousinage" help explain the weak association between ethnicity and individual vote choice. The experimental research design we introduce may be useful in many other settings.