Generalist predators are capable of selective foraging, but are predicted to feed in close proportion to prey availability to maximize energetic intake especially when overall prey availability is low. By extension, they are also expected to feed in a more frequency-dependent manner during winter compared to the more favourable foraging conditions during spring, summer and fall seasons. For 18 months, we observed the foraging patterns of forest-dwelling wolf spiders from the genus Schizocosa (Araneae: Lycosidae) using PCR-based gut-content analysis and simultaneously monitored the activity densities of two common prey: springtails (Collembola) and flies (Diptera). Rates of prey detection within spider guts relative to rates of prey collected in traps were estimated using Roualdes' c model and compared using various linear contrasts to make inferences pertaining to seasonal prey selectivity. Results indicated spiders foraged selectively over the course of the study, contrary to predictions derived from optimal foraging theory. Even during winter, with overall low prey densities, the relative rates of predation compared to available prey differed significantly over time and by prey group. Moreover, these spiders appeared to diversify their diets; the least abundant prey group was consistently overrepresented in the diet within a given season. We suggest that foraging in generalist predators is not necessarily restricted to frequency dependency during winter. In fact, foraging motives other than energy maximization, such as a more nutrient-focused strategy, may also be optimal for generalist predators during prey-scarce winters.
The literature on modelling a predator's prey selection describes many intuitive indices, few of which have both reasonable statistical justification and tractable asymptotic properties. Here, we provide a simple model that meets both of these criteria, while extending previous work to include an array of data from multiple species and time points. Further, we apply the expectation-maximisation algorithm to compute estimates if exact counts of the number of prey species eaten in a particular time period are not observed. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the accuracy of our method, and illustrate the utility of the approach for field analysis of predation using a real data set, collected on wolf spiders using molecular gut-content analysis.
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