Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km² spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km² is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed

Abstract. Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2 ± 1.6 Gt a −1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2 ± 2.6 Gt a −1 . This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008], highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

The coupling between air and ground temperatures in the mountains of southern Norway was examined using 12 shallow boreholes drilled in August 2008. Three borehole arrays (at Juvvass, Jetta and Tron), each with boreholes at different elevations, were established along a continentality gradient. At the least continental site (Juvvass), the transect includes boreholes with shallow seasonal frost to continuous permafrost, while at Jetta and Tron, the arrays covered the transition from relatively deep seasonal frost to marginal permafrost. On the north slope of Tron, however, ground surface temperatures indicate more widespread permafrost conditions, apparently due to the negative thermal anomaly associated with an openwork block field. The surface offsets (mean ground surface temperature (MGST) minus mean air temperature (MAT)) ranged from < 1 °C for unvegetated wind‐scoured sites to up to 4.5 °C for sites with a thick, prolonged snow cover. Active‐layer thicknesses at the borehole sites close to the lower limit of mountain permafrost were up to 10 m in bedrock, even under a low thermal diffusivity sediment cover. The mean ground temperature at 10‐m depth differed significantly from the MGST, mainly due to the 3D thermal effects of the varying snow cover. Our air temperature measurements do not support the inference that the observed decrease in the lower elevational limit of mountain permafrost with continentality is mainly due to lower MAT. Rather, the pattern fits with an eastwards decrease in the lower limit of block fields and snowfall amounts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

CryoGRID 1.0 provides an equilibrium model of permafrost distribution in Norway at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The approach was forced with gridded data on daily air temperature and snow cover. Ground thermal properties for different bedrock types and sediment covers were derived from surveys and geological maps to yield distributions of thermal conductivity, heat capacity and water content. The distribution of blockfields was derived from satellite images adapting a newly developed classification scheme. The model was evaluated using measured ground surface and ground temperatures, yielding a realistic description of the permafrost distribution in mainland Norway. The model results show that permafrost underlies sites mainly with exposed bedrock or covered by coarse‐grained sediments, such as blockfields and coarse tills. In northern Norway, palsa mires are abundant and organic material and vegetation strongly influence the ground thermal regime. Modelling suggests that permafrost in equilibrium with the 1981–2010 climate presently underlies between 6.1 per cent and 6.4 per cent of the total area of mainland Norway, an area significantly smaller than that modelled for the Little Ice Age climate (14%). CryoGRID 1.0 was subsequently forced using output from a regional climate model for the 2071–2100 period, which suggests that severe permafrost degradation will occur, leaving permafrost beneath an area of just 0.2 per cent of mainland Norway. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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