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The paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) in the mosquito-bird-human zoonotic cycle. The model, which incorporates density-dependent contact rates between the mosquito population and the hosts (birds and humans), is rigorously analyzed using dynamical systems techniques and theories. These analyses reveal the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity) in WNV transmission dynamics. The epidemiological consequence of backward bifurcation is that the classical requirement of having the reproduction number less than unity, while necessary, is no longer sufficient for WNV elimination from the population. It is further shown that the model with constant contact rates can also exhibit this phenomenon if the WNV-induced mortality in the avian population is high enough. The model is extended to assess the impact of some anti-WNV control measures, by re-formulating the model as an optimal control problem with density-dependent demographic parameters. This entails the use of two control functions, one for mosquito-reduction strategies and the other for personal (human) protection, and redefining the demographic parameters as density-dependent rates. Appropriate optimal control methods are used to characterize the optimal levels of the two controls. Numerical simulations of the optimal control problem, using a set of reasonable parameter values, suggest that mosquito reduction controls should be emphasized ahead of personal protection measures.

A quadruplex reaction has been developed which amplifies the short tandem repeat (STR) loci HUM-VWA31/A, HUMTHO1, HUMF13A1 and HUMFES/FPS. Detection of the PCR products employs denaturing polyacrylamide gels coupled with fluorescent-based technology. This system has been evaluated for use in routine forensic casework and has been shown to be both robust and reproducible. The quadruplex reaction is as sensitive as the commercially available HLA DQ alpha Amplitype typing system and can be used on both degraded and aged material. The problems of environmental contamination have been shown to be limited provided strict procedural practices are followed-i.e. physical separation of sample extraction and amplified products; the use of dedicated equipment such as pipettes; the separation of amplification preparation area. The ability of the system to detect mixtures and the successful analysis of case stains has shown that this system is well suited as a tool for forensic investigation.

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