Cataloging the very large number of undescribed species of insects could be greatly accelerated by automated DNA based approaches, but procedures for large-scale species discovery from sequence data are currently lacking. Here, we use mitochondrial DNA variation to delimit species in a poorly known beetle radiation in the genus Rivacindela from arid Australia. Among 468 individuals sampled from 65 sites and multiple morphologically distinguishable types, sequence variation in three mtDNA genes (cytochrome oxidase subunit 1, cytochrome b, 16S ribosomal RNA) was strongly partitioned between 46 or 47 putative species identified with quantitative methods of species recognition based on fixed unique ("diagnostic") characters. The boundaries between groups were also recognizable from a striking increase in branching rate in clock-constrained calibrated trees. Models of stochastic lineage growth (Yule models) were combined with coalescence theory to develop a new likelihood method that determines the point of transition from species-level (speciation and extinction) to population-level (coalescence) evolutionary processes. Fitting the location of the switches from speciation to coalescent nodes on the ultrametric tree of Rivacindela produced a transition in branching rate occurring at 0.43 Mya, leading to an estimate of 48 putative species (confidence interval for the threshold ranging from 47 to 51 clusters within 2 logL units). Entities delimited in this way exhibited biological properties of traditionally defined species, showing coherence of geographic ranges, broad congruence with morphologically recognized species, and levels of sequence divergence typical for closely related species of insects. The finding of discontinuous evolutionary groupings that are readily apparent in patterns of sequence variation permits largely automated species delineation from DNA surveys of local communities as a scaffold for taxonomy in this poorly known insect group.

DNA barcoding-type studies assemble single-locus data from large samples of individuals and species, and have provided new kinds of data for evolutionary surveys of diversity. An important goal of many such studies is to delimit evolutionarily significant species units, especially in biodiversity surveys from environmental DNA samples. The Generalized Mixed Yule Coalescent (GMYC) method is a likelihood method for delimiting species by fitting within- and between-species branching models to reconstructed gene trees. Although the method has been widely used, it has not previously been described in detail or evaluated fully against simulations of alternative scenarios of true patterns of population variation and divergence between species. Here, we present important reformulations to the GMYC method as originally specified, and demonstrate its robustness to a range of departures from its simplifying assumptions. The main factor affecting the accuracy of delimitation is the mean population size of species relative to divergence times between them. Other departures from the model assumptions, such as varying population sizes among species, alternative scenarios for speciation and extinction, and population growth or subdivision within species, have relatively smaller effects. Our simulations demonstrate that support measures derived from the likelihood function provide a robust indication of when the model performs well and when it leads to inaccurate delimitations. Finally, the so-called single-threshold version of the method outperforms the multiple-threshold version of the method on simulated data: we argue that this might represent a fundamental limit due to the nature of evidence used to delimit species in this approach. Together with other studies comparing its performance relative to other methods, our findings support the robustness of GMYC as a tool for delimiting species when only single-locus information is available. [Clusters; coalescent; DNA; genealogical; neutral; speciation; species.]

Beetles represent almost one-fourth of all described species, and knowledge about their relationships and evolution adds to our understanding of biodiversity. We performed a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of Coleoptera inferred from three genes and nearly 1900 species, representing more than 80% of the world's recognized beetle families. We defined basal relationships in the Polyphaga supergroup, which contains over 300,000 species, and established five families as the earliest branching lineages. By dating the phylogeny, we found that the success of beetles is explained neither by exceptional net diversification rates nor by a predominant role of herbivory and the Cretaceous rise of angiosperms. Instead, the pre-Cretaceous origin of more than 100 present-day lineages suggests that beetle species richness is due to high survival of lineages and sustained diversification in a variety of niches.