A Danish multicentre study was undertaken of the manifestations, infections, thrombotic events, survival and predictive factors of survival in 513 Danish patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) according to the 1982 classification criteria of the American College of Rheumatology. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years from diagnosis and 12.8 years from first symptom. This paper describes the most common clinical and laboratory manifestations and their relationship to sex and age at the time of onset and diagnosis. Cluster analysis revealed three clinically defined clusters at the time of disease onset. Cluster 1 (57% of patients) consisted of relatively elderly patients without nephropathy or malar rash, but with a high prevalence of discoid lesions. Cluster 2 (18%) consisted of patients with nephropathy, a third of whom also developed serositis and lymphopenia. The patients of the third cluster (25%) all had malar rash and half were photosensitive. Follow-up showed that the patients of cluster 2 developed azotaemia, large proteinuria, arterial hypertension and myositis significantly more often than did the rest of the patients, but the mortality was not increased. The risk of developing renal end-stage disease was highest in men with early-onset disease.

In this Danish multicentre study, predictive clinical factors of mortality and survival were calculated for 513 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 122 of whom died within a mean observation period of 8.2 years equalling a mortality rate of 2.9% per year. Survival rates were 97%, 91%, 76% and 64% after 1, 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. The direct causes of death included SLE (n = 35), infections (n = 25), malignancy (n = 9), cardiovascular disease (n = 32) and other causes (n = 21). Uni- and multivariate analyses of survival and mortality were performed for all deaths and for SLE-related deaths. Azotaemia (one-fifth of the patients) was a strong predictor of increased overall and SLE-related mortality, but nephropathy per se (one-half of the patients) and large proteinuria (one-sixth of the patients) were unrelated to survival. Haemolytic anaemia had a significant negative influence on survival related to mortality caused by infections. Diffuse central nervous system disease and myocarditis were related to increased SLE-related mortality, whereas photosensitivity predicted a decreased mortality. Non-fatal infections and thrombotic events predicted a decreased overall survival. Since 1980 the mortality caused by SLE manifestations has decreased significantly.

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