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BackgroundRegime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins.Principal FindingsIn this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems.ConclusionsOur results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

[1] Understanding the impact of climate change on zooplankton populations is of major importance, as they represent the basis for higher trophic levels in the marine food web. In this study we analyze the 36-year copepod abundance time series in the Gulf of Trieste, northern Adriatic, to investigate its interannual variability, with particular attention to species trends and phenology. Following the analysis of the local winter sea surface temperature, two periods are identified : 1970-1987 and 1988-2005. These periods are characterized by ecosystem-wide changes: an approximate doubling in total copepod abundance, the arrival of a new species (Diaixis pygmoea), the rise (Paracalanus parvus, Oncaea spp., Oithona spp., and Euterpina acutifrons) or decline (Pseudocalanus elongatus, Clausocalanus spp.) of several taxa, and changes in the phenology in several species, with predominantly forward shifts in the timing of the maximum peak. While Acartia clausi remains the dominant species, there is a general trend toward smaller species in the second period. Our results also indicate the large, possibly critical, reduction in the abundance of the species Pseudocalanus elongatus. We hypothesize that the changes in copepod abundances and community composition in the Gulf of Trieste are related to the general warming in the sea surface temperature and associated northerly displacement of the ecosystem and to the changes in the Mediterranean circulation that began at the end of the 1980s and affected the whole basin in the following years as part of the phenomenon called the Eastern Mediterranean Transient.

Abstract:A one-year time series of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data was collected in Terra Nova Bay (TNB) polynya (Ross Sea, Antarctica) during 2000. Together with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) Eneide meteorological data and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) ice concentration data, ADCP data were analysed to investigate upper layer dynamics and variability due to atmospheric forcing. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was performed to separate the surface variability caused by local forcing from the large-scale circulation component. In particular, the first mode represented the barotropic circulation while the second the stronger surface currents. The decrease in shelf water density from melting sea ice resulted in an off-shore density gradient producing a southern shift in the circulation. This result proved to be consistent with the in situ data acquired during February-April at 120 m depth. The observed variability of the surface currents was assessed with respect to the thermal wind equation and the steady Ekman model. Strong katabatic winds shifted the surface currents eastward with respect to the general north-eastern circulation. The wind stress acted as a relevant forcing for the surface large-scale circulation in TNB, but had negligible effects on the vertically integrated transport.