SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). I...

These data suggest that both general adiposity and abdominal adiposity are associated with the risk of death and support the use of waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI in assessing the risk of death.

Metabolomic discovery of biomarkers of type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk may reveal etiological pathways and help to identify individuals at risk for disease. We prospectively investigated the association between serum metabolites measured by targeted metabolomics and risk of T2D in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam (27,548 adults) among all incident cases of T2D (n = 800, mean follow-up 7 years) and a randomly drawn subcohort (n = 2,282). Flow injection analysis tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify 163 metabolites, including acylcarnitines, amino acids, hexose, and phospholipids, in baseline serum samples. Serum hexose; phenylalanine; and diacyl-phosphatidylcholines C32:1, C36:1, C38:3, and C40:5 were independently associated with increased risk of T2D and serum glycine; sphingomyelin C16:1; acyl-alkyl-phosphatidylcholines C34:3, C40:6, C42:5, C44:4, and C44:5; and lysophosphatidylcholine C18:2 with decreased risk. Variance of the metabolites was largely explained by two metabolite factors with opposing risk associations (factor 1 relative risk in extreme quintiles 0.31 [95% CI 0.21–0.44], factor 2 3.82 [2.64–5.52]). The metabolites significantly improved T2D prediction compared with established risk factors. They were further linked to insulin sensitivity and secretion in the Tübingen Family study and were partly replicated in the independent KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) cohort. The data indicate that metabolic alterations, including sugar metabolites, amino acids, and choline-containing phospholipids, are associated early on with a higher risk of T2D.

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A targeted metabolomics approach was used to identify candidate biomarkers of pre-diabetes. The relevance of the identified metabolites is further corroborated with a protein-metabolite interaction network and gene expression data.