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Summary. Development of sustainable transportation is a process which involves promoting efficient transport systems meeting social expectations, while reducing any sub-optimal or harmful effects on public health, natural environment, economy and urban planning. Therefore, in the case of passenger transport, the most effective measure to achieve sustainable transport development is to maximize the share of public transport. This paper analyses trends in changes of demand for passenger transport in European Union Member States, in Poland and in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, including in urban and non-urban areas. Based on collected data and extensive transport-related research of the authors, including surveys of residents, the most important conditions have been defined which affect passenger transport demand in Kujawsko-Pomorskie province, and a forecast has been attempted of the demand in three different scenarios of economic development (optimistic, stable and regressive) for various years. The projected public transport demand has been established on the basis of simulations using a proprietary transport model. Results of these calculations revealed surprising conclusions which indicate unfavourable trends in changes of the analysed demand and insignificant differences in projected transport needs, regardless of the selected economic development option for the country and the province.

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