SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including

OBJECTIVE -In men, hypoandrogenism is associated with features of the metabolic syndrome, but the role of sex hormones in the pathogenesis of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes is not well understood. We assessed the association of low levels of testosterone and sex hormonebinding globulin (SHBG) with the development of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in men.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -Concentrations of SHBG and total and calculated free testosterone and factors related to insulin resistance were determined at baseline in 702 middle-aged Finnish men participating in a population-based cohort study. These men had neither diabetes nor the metabolic syndrome.RESULTS -After 11 years of follow-up, 147 men had developed the metabolic syndrome (National Cholesterol Education Program criteria) and 57 men diabetes. Men with total testosterone, calculated free testosterone, and SHBG levels in the lower fourth had a severalfold increased risk of developing the metabolic syndrome (odds ratio [OR] 2.3, 95% CI 1.5-3.4; 1.7, 1.2-2.5; and 2.8, 1.9 -4.1, respectively) and diabetes (2.3, 1.3-4.1; 1.7, 0.9 -3.0; and 4.3, 2.4 -7.7, respectively) after adjustment for age. Adjustment for potential confounders such as cardiovascular disease, smoking, alcohol intake, and socioeconomic status did not alter the associations. Factors related to insulin resistance attenuated the associations, but they remained significant, except for free testosterone.CONCLUSIONS -Low total testosterone and SHBG levels independently predict development of the metabolic syndrome and diabetes in middle-aged men. Thus, hypoandrogenism is an early marker for disturbances in insulin and glucose metabolism that may progress to the metabolic syndrome or frank diabetes and may contribute to their pathogenesis. Diabetes Care 27:1036 -1041, 2004I n cross-sectional studies, low levels of total and free testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in men have consistently been associated not only with type 2 diabetes, but also with visceral obesity, insulin resistance or hyperinsulinemia, dyslipidemia (1-7), and, more recently, the metabolic syndrome itself (6). The association of testosterone and SHBG with an altered lipid profile is partly secondary to abdominal fat accumulation, but there also appears to be an independent relationship between low levels of testosterone and hyperinsulinemia (4) and dyslipidemia (8). Low levels of testosterone have also predicted worsening abdominal obesity (9).Testosterone itself may have a central or permissive role in the pathogenesis of the metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes by increasing skeletal muscle tissue and decreasing abdominal obesity and nonesterified fatty acids, consequently improving insulin sensitivity (10). Overall or abdominal obesity increases glucocorticoid turnover and production, which disturbs regulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis (11,12) and may contribute to mild hypoandrogenism in men. An imbalance between levels of testosterone and its metabolite dihydrotestosterone could...

Abstract-Development of hypertension has been linked to chronic low-grade inflammation. However, it is not known whether this connection is mediated by features of the metabolic syndrome or smoking, or their changes, which themselves have been linked to inflammation. We studied the predictive value of highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking, and abdominal obesity to the development of hypertension in an 11-year follow-up of a population-based study cohort comprising 379 middle-aged normotensive men. During the follow-up, 124 men (33%) developed hypertension. Men with hs-CRP Ն3.0 mg/L were 2.8ϫ (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 6.6) more likely to develop hypertension than with hs-CRP Ͻ1.0 mg/L even after adjustment for features of the metabolic syndrome, lifestyle factors, and their changes. Cigarette smoking was also associated with development of hypertension independently of inflammation and other confounders. Waist girth increased more in men who quit smoking than in other men. An increase in waist girth during follow-up strongly predicted incident hypertension. The decrease in smoking was not associated with a lower risk of hypertension in age-adjusted analyses. Hypertension is preceded by low-grade chronic inflammation in middle-aged white men independently of smoking or features of the metabolic syndrome. Furthermore, smoking may be a risk factor for hypertension. Although stopping smoking is beneficial with respect to health outcomes, the subsequent increase in weight and waist girth associated with smoking cessation may offset the decrease in the risk of hypertension that one may otherwise expect. Key Words: obesity Ⅲ smoking Ⅲ prospective studies Ⅲ insulin resistance C hronic low-grade inflammation seems to be an early feature of many chronic degenerative disorders, including atherosclerosis, abdominal obesity, and type 2 diabetes. 1-3 These disorders are also commonly associated with hypertension, which itself has also been linked recently to inflammation. The most compelling evidence comes from the Women's Health Study, in which C-reactive protein (CRP) as a marker of low-grade inflammation predicted the development of hypertension in a cohort of 20 525 female US health professionals during a follow-up of 7.8 years. 4 This effect was seen even in those with low baseline blood pressure levels and in those without other conventional cardiovascular risk factors, but no adjustment could be made for the presence of the metabolic syndrome, a possible mediator of this connection. 5 Smoking causes an acute rise in blood pressure, whereas the connection between chronic smoking and development of hypertension is still unclear. Smoking in its own right increases inflammation, 6 but smoking cessation may not reverse it. 7 Furthermore, stopping smoking commonly leads to weight gain. Weight gain is a well-established risk factor for hypertension. Moreover, weight gain and obesity, especially abdominal, appear to not only cause inflammation but may be preceded by inflammation. 8 Complicating the pictur...