BACKGROUND & AIMS: Long-term outcomes of patients with branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), particularly those after 5 years of surveillance, have not been fully evaluated in large studies. We analyzed incidences of IPMN-derived carcinoma and concomitant ductal adenocarcinoma (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma [PDAC]) over 20 years in a large population of patients. METHODS: We identified 1404 consecutive patients (52% women; mean age, 67.5 years) with a diagnosis of branch-duct IPMN, from 1994 through 2017, at the University of Tokyo in Japan. Using a competing risk analysis, we estimated cumulative incidence of pancreatic carcinoma, overall and by carcinoma type. We used competing risks proportional hazards models to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for incidences of carcinomas. To differentiate IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, we collected genomic DNA from available paired samples of IPMNs and carcinomas and detected mutations in GNAS and KRAS by polymerase chain reaction and pyrosequencing. RESULTS: During 9231 personyears of follow-up, we identified 68 patients with pancreatic carcinomas (38 patients with IPMN-derived carcinomas and 30 patients with concomitant PDACs); the overall incidence rates were 3.3%, 6.6%, and 15.0% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. Among 804 patients followed more than 5 years, overall cumulative incidence rates of pancreatic carcinoma were 3.5% at 10 years and 12.0% at 15 years from the initial diagnosis. The size of the IPMN and the diameter of the main pancreatic duct associated with incidence of IPMNderived carcinoma (SHR 1.85; 95% confidence interval 1.38-2.48 for a 10-mm increase in the IPMN size and SHR 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.33-1.83 for a 1-mm increase in the main pancreatic duct diameter) but not with incidence of concomitant PDAC. CONCLUSIONS: In a large long-term study of patients with branch-duct IPMNs, we found the 5year incidence rate of pancreatic malignancy to be 3.3%, reaching 15.0% at 15 years after IPMN diagnosis. We observed heterogeneous risk factor profiles between IPMNderived and concomitant carcinomas.

Objective It has been discussed whether IgG4-related disease (IgG4-RD), including autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP), is associated with malignancy; however, the issue has not been clarified. Methods We analyzed 113 patients with IgG4-RD in whom malignancy was not diagnosed at the time of IgG4-RD onset and the follow-up period was longer than six months. A total of 95 patients had AIP. The mean follow-up period was 73 months. The incidence of the observed malignancies was compared with the expected incidence in an age-and sex-matched general Japanese population based on the Vital Statistics of Japan. Results There were 15 malignancies (lung cancer in five patients, pancreatic cancer in two patients, gastric cancer in two patients, bile duct cancer in one patient, renal cancer in one patient, breast cancer in one patient, tongue cancer in one patient, malignant melanoma in one patient and acute myeloid leukemia in one patient) in 14 patients during the follow-up period. The calculated standardized incidence rate of the total malignancies was not significant, that is, 1.04 (95% CI 0.57-1.75). Conclusion The incidence of total malignancies in IgG4-RD patients is similar to that observed in the general population. At present, it is reasonable to conclude that IgG4-RD is not associated with an increased incidence of total malignancies.

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Background and Aim An antireflux metal stent (ARMS) for nonresectable distal malignant biliary obstruction (MBO) may prevent recurrent biliary obstruction (RBO) as a result of duodenobiliary reflux and prolong time to RBO (TRBO). Superiority of ARMS over conventional covered self‐expandable metal stents (SEMS) has not been fully examined. Methods We conducted a multicenter randomized controlled trial to examine whether TRBO of an ARMS with a funnel‐shaped valve was longer than that of a covered SEMS in SEMS‐naïve patients. We enrolled 104 patients (52 patients per arm) at 11 hospitals in Japan. Secondary outcomes included causes of RBO, adverse events, and patient survival. Results TRBO did not differ significantly between the ARMS and covered SEMS groups (median, 251 vs 351 days, respectively; P = 0.11). RBO as a result of biliary sludge or food impaction was observed in 13% and 9.8% of patients who received an ARMS and covered SEMS, respectively (P = 0.83). ARMS was associated with a higher rate of stent migration compared with the covered SEMS (31% vs 12%, P = 0.038). Overall rates of adverse events were 20% and 18% in the ARMS and covered SEMS groups, respectively (P = 0.97). No significant between‐group difference in patient survival was observed (P = 0.26). Conclusions The current ARMS was not associated with longer TRBO compared with the covered SEMS. Modifications including addition of an anti‐migration system are required to use the current ARMS as first‐line palliative treatment of distal MBO (UMIN‐CTR clinical trial registration number: UMIN000014784).