This paper is aimed at analyzing and determining the prospect of economic growth and income inequality by looking at panel data starting from 2011 to 2015 in all regencies and cities in West Sumatera. The data analysis used was simultaneous equation with ILS (Indirect Least Square) method. The results show that labor and Human Development Index (HDI) are the factors that affect Economic Growth, whereas labor, HDI and agricultural sector development are the factors that affect income inequality in West Sumatera.

This study uses two estimation models, logistic and linear regression. The logit model is used to see the probability of an individual being a tobacco user. The second method uses multiple linear regres- sion which aims to see the factors that influence the demand for tobacco consumption in West Suma- tra. This research was obtained from National Socio-Economic Survey in 2019. Comparing these two models, there was a slight difference. Income does not influence an individual’s decision to become a tobacco user, while this variable is significant in influencing the demand for tobacco. This study also reveal that social and economic factors are significant in influencing the demand for tobacco in West Sumatra. Economic factors show that tobacco is a normal good. Meanwhile, from social factors such as education level shows that the lower the level of education causes individuals to become tobacco users and also causes the demand for cigarettes in West Sumatra to increase. This result causes the standard of household living to be disrupted because education is a human capital investment. So that various policies from the government are expected to control tobacco consumption in West Sumatra.

After the global financial crisis in 2008, economists believe that global economic conditions are a source of instability for the domestic economy in developing countries such as Indonesia. These external factors include fluctuations in global financial markets, volatility in commodity prices and capital inflows into the domestic economy which are known to have an impact on the financial cycle. This study explores the interaction of the three external factors to determine which factor has the most dominant interaction with the financial cycle in Indonesia. The interaction between external factors and the Indonesian financial cycle also means understanding the factors that affect the contraction period and expansion of the financial cycle in Indonesia. The study used time series data. The data used are secondary data from official publications, namely Bank Indonesia for data on capital flows and bank credit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for international commodity price index data and the global financial market valatility index (VIX). The analysis period in this research is 1993 first quarter to 2018 fourth quarter. This data sample selection is based on the availability of the longest data series using the quarterly data frequency in Indonesia. The result shows that shows that the interaction of total capital inflow to Indonesia has a pro-cyclical movement pattern with commodity price cycles and has a counter-cyclical movement pattern with the global financial cycle. Furthermore, the credit cycle to non-business fields is the cycle with the strongest interaction with all capital flow cycles analyzed in this study. Meanwhile, the total credit cycle and the credit cycle to the business field show a stronger procyclical interaction with the equity-based capital flow cycle than the interaction with the debt-based capital flow cycle

Crowding out konsumsi tembakau menganalisis dampak dari peningkatan konsumsi tembakau terhadap kelompok pengeluaran rumah tangga lainnya di Sumatra Barat. Data yang digunakan adalah data Susenas tahun 2016. Dengan menggunakan metode Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa meningkatnya pengeluaran tembakau memiliki hubungan yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap hampir semua jenis pengeluaran rumah tangga, seperti makanan, bahan bakar, pendidikan, hiburan, pakaian, kesehatan, dan barang tahan lama. Pengeluaran untuk barang tahan lama dan pendidikan adalah pengeluaran yang mempunyai efek crowding-out paling tinggi. Temuan ini mengungkapkan bahwa crowding-out konsumsi tembakau memiliki pengaruh terhadap investasi modal manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang di Sumatra Barat.

Bekerja setelah menikah masih menjadi dilema di kalangan wanita Indonesia. Penelitian ini mengestimasi peluang wanita bekerja keluar dari pasar tenaga kerja setelah menikah. Data yang digunakan adalah Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) tahun 2007 dan 2014. Dengan menggunakan logit model, hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa bekerja pada sektor formal merupakan variabel yang paling signifikan untuk mendorong wanita bekerja keluar dari pasar tenaga kerja setelah menikah. Rekomendasi kebijakan dari hasil penelitian ini adalah mengurangi opportunity cost bagi wanita yang bekerja di sektor formal.