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Today the Northern Sea Route attracts due attention of the international transport society. The Russian government has set a task to increase the cargo volumes transported via this way. There is an assumption that a substantial share of this amount would be the transit of the containerized cargo in both directions, Eastbound and Westbound. In these circumstances – since we speak about liner shipping and the maritime component of international intermodal transportation, there is a demand for scientifically proved methods of planning and prognoses of ice-breaker escort operations of transit caravans of merchant ships, both for selected legs and the whole route. This paper deals with the simulation model of the caravan of ships transiting the route leg by leg. The techniques proposed by this investigation enables to assess the random value – the time needed to pass along the Northern Sea Route. Simultaneously, the offered mechanisms permit to form the graphics of the movements along the parts of the route, which helps to make reliable forecasts for estimated passage times, estimated times for consolidation and dispersion of caravans, waiting times in the relay system of the movement along NSR. Eventually, these forecasts would form a base for the intermodal transportation chain.

The algorithm and program for the model of operation of the hydrocarbon loading complex, which consists of an ice class shuttle tanker and offshore platform equipped with an oil shipping system, are considered in the paper. The model allows you to analyze the process of carrying out cargo operations, taking into account the time the vessels stood at loading, waiting for the start of cargo operations, the downtime of the platform equipment in anticipation of the tankers arrival. By means of modeling, a statistical analysis of the system operation at specified time intervals is carried out, simulation modeling is carried out with arbitrary distributions of the intervals between the arrival times of ships and their service time, with various disciplines and service parameters. It is noted that solving the practical problem of ensuring the smooth operation of ships on the line, estimating the time intervals of oil loading on the platform under conditions of unsteady traffic flow can be successfully performed by simulating the problems of planning ice pilotage of vessels in the Arctic regions. The operability of the model based on the use of tools of computing environments and digital technologies is determined by the high level of adequacy of the studied characteristics to the real process of organizing the movement of tankers according to the established schedule, taking into account the time of technological operations during oil shipment and changes in fleet composition. Modeling using object programming technologies allows you to study the various schemes of the tanker fleet composition by simulating variable and observable alternating states and make informed decisions based on quantitative estimates of the results of a machine experiment. The program and examples of evaluating the operating parameters on the model are given.

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