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The reliability impacts of a highly variable energy source such as wind power is an important aspect that needs to be assessed as wind power penetration becomes increasingly significant. Bulk electric system (BES) reliability analysis associated with wind energy conversion systems (WECS) provides an opportunity to investigate the reliability benefits at potential BES connection points in close proximity to the wind power development area. A bulk electric system can encounter transmission capacity limitation problems when a large-scale WECS is connected to a weak transmission area. In this case, transmission reinforcement may be required in order to increase the system capability to absorb more wind power at specified locations. BES reliability analysis associated with large-scale wind farms as demonstrated in this paper can assist system planners to create potential transmission reinforcement schemes to facilitate large-scale WECS additions to a bulk system. Reliability cost/worth analysis is also incorporated in the examination of reinforcement alternatives. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach is used as this methodology can facilitate a time series modeling of wind speeds and also provides accurate frequency and duration assessments. An auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is used to simulate hourly wind speeds.Index Terms-Auto-regressive moving average (ARMA), bulk electric system (BES), sequential Monte Carlo simulation, system reinforcement planning, wind energy conversion system (WECS).

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