PurposeUsing nationally representative data, this study estimated the probability of a household receiving RASKIN rice in general as well as the rate of excluding poor households and including nonpoor households in relation to the targeting accuracy of the RASKIN program.Design/methodology/approachThe data came from the National Socioeconomic Survey conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics in March 2015. Several independent variables were included, such as the head of household's age, gender and marital status, in addition to highest educational level among family members, household size, economic status, regional district and residential classification.FindingsThe results showed that a household's probability of receiving RASKIN rice increases if the head of household is older, female and a widower, and the household has more human capital accumulation, more family members, lower economic status and is in a rural area and/or Java and Nusa Tenggara. The estimated probabilities of poor households excluded from the RASKIN program and nonpoor households included are 44.8 and 35.1%, respectively, suggesting mistargeting occurred where eligible recipients were undercovered, and revealed the loss of funds to ineligible households.Originality/valueThe present study focused on the program's targeting accuracy while at the same time keeping in mind the social and geographical conditions in Indonesia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, little to no such research has been conducted.