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This study evaluates how well China's 11th and 12th Five-Year Plans have been implemented in terms of energy conservation and air pollution control and deconstructs the effects of the economic, energy, and environmental policies included in the Plans. A "counterfactual" comparative-scenario method is deployed, which assumes a business as usual scenario in which the changes in economic, energy, and environmental parameters are "frozen", and then reactivates them one by one, with the help of LEAP modeling. It is found that during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the binding targets were basically achieved. Economic growth put a great strain upon the energy demand and the environment, but energy policy made a decisive contribution by promoting energy efficiency and structure. Environmental policy promoted the deployment of end-of-pipe treatment which led to the control of certain air pollutants but at the expense of an increase in energy use and in the emission of other pollutants. During the ongoing 12th Five-Year Plan period, energy policy's potential for efficiency improvement is shrinking, but economic policy is restraining economic growth thus making a positive contribution. Environmental policy attempts to enforce multipollutant reduction, but there is still insufficient focus on the cocontrol of different pollutants and CO2.

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The present study proposes an integrated multipollutant cocontrol strategy framework in the context of the Chinese iron and steel industry. The unit cost of pollutant reduction (UCPR) was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of each emission reduction measure. The marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 were drawn based on the UCPR and the abatement potential. Air pollutant equivalence (APeq) captures the nature of the damage value-weights of various air pollutants and acts as uniformization multiple air pollutants index. Single pollutant abatement routes designed in accordance with the corresponding reduction targets revealed that the cocontrol strategy has promising potential. Moreover, with the same reduction cost limitations as the single pollutant abatement routes, the multipollutant cocontrol routes are able to obtain more desirable pollution reduction and health benefits. Co-control strategy generally shows cost-effective advantage over single-pollutant abatement strategy. The results are robust to changing parameters according to sensitivity analysis. Co-control strategy would be an important step to achieve energy/carbon intensity targets and pollution control targets in China. Though cocontrol strategy has got some traction in policy debates, there are barriers to integrate it into policy making in the near future in China.

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