This paper builds a theoretical model based on a representative peasant household in the neoclassical model, comprehensively considers three types of farmer households in China, and evaluates the effects of the agricultural subsidy policy under equilibrium conditions. Based on the two bottom lines of guaranteeing China’s grain security and ensuring no large-scale return to poverty, this paper uses 2010, 2012, and 2014 tracking survey data from the Mutual Aid Fund for Poverty-Stricken Villages in China to construct an econometric model to evaluate agricultural subsidy effectiveness from the three aspects of farmers’ total sown area, total grain output, and total income. The research draws the following conclusions: (1) Agricultural subsidies can significantly increase the sown area, grain production, and total income of farmers in poverty-stricken areas, which is conducive to improving the farmers’ comprehensive capacity for grain production as well as income, and this conclusion remains valid after performing a series of robustness tests and solving endogeneity problems. (2) The effects of the agricultural subsidy policy are affected by natural conditions, economic development levels, and functional orientation of grain production in different regions, and they have divergent influences on farmers’ total sown area, total output, and total income. (3) Agricultural subsidies boost farmers’ willingness to cultivate grain, reduce land abandonment, and increase the total sown area, total output, and total grain income. The willingness to cultivate grain is an important mechanism that affects the effectiveness of the agricultural subsidy policy.

The impact of house prices on consumption is an important concern for academics and policy makers. Several studies have documented that house price changes have an impact on consumption; however, there is far less consensus on how house price changes affect consumption in China. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of house prices on household consumption in urban China and to identify the mechanisms behind the impact. This study measures the impact of housing price changes on consumption at the household level, using research data from 71,548 home-owning households in the 2011–2019 China Household Finance Survey database. Our analysis shows that housing prices have a significant negative effect on consumption, with a 1% increase in the value of a household’s property causing a 0.0034% decrease in household consumption, an effect that is significant for households that own a home and for those in the eastern and central regions. We find that rising house prices cause an increase in households’ precautionary savings, which is the main mechanism through which house prices affect consumption in China. Furthermore, the impact of house prices on consumption is asymmetric, with consumption moving in the opposite direction when house prices rise but not when house prices fall. This study provides meaningful insights for policy makers on the usefulness of building a healthy and stable housing market to expand consumption and revitalize the economy.