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This paper presents a time-dependent concurrent reliability-based design optimization (TDC-RBDO) method integrating the time-variant B-distance index to improve the confidence level of design results with a small amount of experimental data. The time-variant B-distance index is first constructed using the extreme values of responses. The Hist Loop CDF (HLCDF) algorithm is then presented to calculate the time-variant B-distance index with high computational efficiency. The TDC-RBDO framework is provided by integrating the time-variant B-distance index and time-dependent reliability. The extreme value moment method (EVMM) is implemented to speed up the procedure of the TDC-RBDO. The case of a harmonic reducer is employed to elaborate on the proposed method.

In the process of natural gas productivity construction in the Sichuan basin, in order to carry out the technical and economic feasibility demonstrations based on the productivity of the construction project, it is necessary to establish an integrated productivity and economic risk evaluation model based on the productivity prediction of natural gas and considering the impacts of economic benefits and various risks. Based on the economic evaluation of productivity construction projects, this paper analysed the risk evaluation standards of productivity construction projects in the Sichuan basin and quantified risk indicators at all levels, then used 0-1 regularization method and Monte-Carlo technique to establish the risk evaluation model, and finally achieved projects scheme scheduling and multi-scenario, multi-scheme target optimal combination by synthesizing the economic evaluation model, risk evaluation model, and comprehensive evaluation model established by AHP method of productivity construction projects.