Nonindigenous bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix; hereafter, “Asian carps” [AC]) threaten to invade and disrupt food webs and fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes through their high consumption of plankton. To quantify the potential effects of AC on the food web in Lake Erie, we developed an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food web model and simulated four AC diet composition scenarios (high, low, and no detritus and low detritus with Walleye Sander vitreus and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens larvae) and two nutrient load scenarios (the 1999 baseline load and 2× the baseline [HP]). We quantified the uncertainty of the potential AC effects by coupling the EwE model with estimates of parameter uncertainty in AC production, consumption, and predator diets obtained using structured expert judgment. Our model projected mean ± SD AC equilibrium biomass ranging from 52 ± 34 to 104 ± 75 kg/ha under the different scenarios. Relative to baseline simulations without AC, AC invasion under all detrital diet scenarios decreased the biomass of most fish and zooplankton groups. The effects of AC in the HP scenario were similar to those in the detrital diet scenarios except that the biomasses of most Walleye and Yellow Perch groups were greater under HP because these fishes were buffered from competition with AC by increased productivity at lower trophic levels. Asian carp predation on Walleye and Yellow Perch larvae caused biomass declines among all Walleye and Yellow Perch groups. Large food web impacts of AC occurred in only 2% of the simulations, where AC biomass exceeded 200 kg/ha, resulting in biomass declines of zooplankton and planktivorous fish near the levels observed in the Illinois River. Our findings suggest that AC would affect Lake Erie's food web by competing with other planktivorous fishes and by providing additional prey for piscivores. Our methods provide a novel approach for including uncertainty into forecasts of invasive species' impacts on aquatic food webs.

The energy of turbulence in the universe, which cascades from large fluid scales to small kinetic scales, is believed to be dissipated through conversion to thermal or nonthermal kinetic energy. However, identifying the dissipation processes and measuring the dissipation rate in turbulence remain challenging. Based on unprecedented highquality measurements of space plasma turbulence by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, we propose a novel approach to measure the scale-dependent spectrum of the energy conversion rate between the fluctuating electromagnetic energy and plasma kinetic energy. The energy conversion rate spectrum is found to show a positive bulge around the ion kinetic scale, which clearly indicates the dissipation of the turbulent energy. The energy dissipation rate around the ion scale is estimated to be 0.5×10 6 J kg −1 s −1. This work provides basic information on local dissipation in magnetosheath turbulence and sets up a new paradigm for studying the dissipation of universal plasma turbulence.

We analyze measurements from Magnetospheric Multiscale mission to provide the spectra related with diffusion, dispersion, and dissipation, all of which are compared with predictions from plasma theory. This work is one example of magnetosheath turbulence, which is complex and diverse and includes more wave modes than the kinetic Alfvénic wave (KAW) mode studied here. The counter-propagation of KAW is identified from the polarities of cross-correlation spectra: CC(N e , |B|), CC(V e⊥ , B ⊥), CC(V eP , B P), and CC(N e , V eP). We propose the concepts of turbulence ion and electron diffusion ranges (T-IDRs and T-EDRs) and identify them practically based on the ratio between electric field power spectral densities in different reference frames: PSD(d ¢ E i,local)/PSD(δE global) and PSD(d ¢ E e,local)/PSD(δE global). The outer scales of the T-IDR and T-EDR are observed to be at the wavenumber of kd i ∼0.2 and kd e ∼0.1, where d i and d e are the proton and electron inertial lengths, respectively. The signatures of positive dispersion related to the Hall effect are illustrated observationally and reproduced theoretically with flat PSD(δE global) and steep PSD(δB), as well as a bifurcation between PSD(δV i) and PSD(δV e). We calculate the dissipation rate spectra, g k (), which clearly show the commencement of dissipation around kd i ∼1. We find that the dissipation in this case is mainly converted to electron parallel kinetic energy, responsible for the electron thermal anisotropy with T e,P /T e,⊥ >1. The "3D" (diffusion, dispersion, and dissipation) characteristics of kinetic Alfvénic and compressive plasma turbulence are therefore summarized as follows: positive dispersion due to the Hall effect appears in the T-IDR, while dominant parallel dissipation with energy transferred to electrons occurs mainly in the T-EDR.

The solar wind is found by the Parker Solar Probe to be abundant with Alfvénic velocity spikes and magnetic field kinks. Temperature enhancement is another remarkable feature associated with the Alfvénic spikes. How the prototype of these coincident phenomena is generated intermittently in the source region is an important and wide-ranging subject. Here we propose a new model introducing guide-field discontinuity into the interchange magnetic reconnection between open funnels and closed loops with different magnetic helicities. The modified interchange reconnection model not only can accelerate jet flows from the newly opening closed loop but also can excite and launch Alfvénic wave pulses along the newly reconnected and post-reconnected open flux tubes. We find that the modeling results can reproduce the following observational features: (1) Alfvén disturbance is pulsive in time and asymmetric in space; (2) Alfvénic pulse is compressive with temperature enhancement and density variation inside the pulse. We point out that three physical processes co-happening with Alfvén wave propagation can be responsible for the temperature enhancement: (a) convection of heated jet flow plasmas (decrease in density), (b) propagation of compressive slow-mode waves (increase in density), and (c) conduction of heat flux (weak change in density). We also suggest that the radial nonlinear evolution of the Alfvénic pulses should be taken into account to explain the formation of magnetic switchback geometry.

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