Background While clinical significance of ST-T wave abnormalities (STA) in rest electrocardiography (ECG) on long-term cardiovascular outcomes has been on debate, few studies have been reported on the association between the changes in ST-T waves in rest ECG and cardiovascular outcomes in low risk populations. We investigate the changing patterns of STA in rest ECG and the predictive value of the changes in ST-T wave in rest ECG for cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic general population. Methods A longitudinal community-based cohort study was conducted for 12 years. Koreans aged 40–69 years were followed biennially through scheduled revisit for comprehensive assessments. Among 10,030 participants, 6,648 participants who did not have any cardiovascular diseases, angina-related symptoms or pathologic Q waves in rest ECG at baseline were included for analysis. Changes in STAs were defined using the changes between ECG at baseline and that at the first revisit. A major adverse cardiovascular events was defined as a composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease and stroke. Results Among 5,924 participants without STA at baseline, only 187 participants (3.2%) developed new STA. Among 724 patients (10.9%) with STA at baseline, 274 patients (37.8%) persistently showed STA at the first revisit. MACEs occurred more frequently in the participants persistently with STA and those with newly-developed STA than in the participants persistently without STA (Figure 1). Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models showed that a higher risk of MACE was only associated with the persisted STA (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.10–2.63). In participants with baseline STA, persisted T-wave flattening was associated with a higher risk of MACE, whereas T-wave inversion, either persisted or fluctuated was not associated with a higher risk of MACE, compared with persistent absence of STA (Figure 2). In the participants without baseline STAs, multivariate Cox-proportional hazard model showed that newly-developed T-wave flattening (HR 1.85; 95% CI 0.20–2.84), not T-wave inversion (HR 1.50; 95% CI 0.85–2.65) was associated with a higher risk of MACE. Survival receiver operating curve analysis showed that the changes in STAs had a C-index of 0.538 (95% CI 0.511–0.558), a sensitivity of 13.0% and a specificity of 92.5% and add only a small value to the predictive power of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases risk estimator (C-index without STA changes 0.708 [0.681–0.736] vs. C-index with STA changes 0.721 [0.694–0.748]). Conclusions STAs uncommonly developed while frequently disappeared spontaneously in the asymptomatic general population. Persisted STA and newly developed STA in rest ECG were predictive of future cardiovascular events in the asymptomatic general population. However, the changes in STAs did not significantly improve the predictive value of the conventional risk estimator, when added. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National Research Foundation of Korea Figure 1 Figure 2

Background Paradoxical beneficial effects of obesity on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality have been reported in multiple cohort studies based on patients with cardiovascular disease as well as general populations. However, the association between the presence of obesity at baseline and the better survival rates could not be directly interpreted into the beneficial effect of gain in obesity or fatness on the mortality, which makes it difficult to provide any recommendation for the management of obesity. Therefore, we investigated the influence of the changes in body fat on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a general population. Methods A population-based cohort study has been conducted for 12 years (from 2001 to 2012). A total of 5,259 subjects in whom body compositions using a bio-impedance method were measured at least 2 times during the observational period were included. The causes of death was identified from the nation-wide database in KOSTAT. I20-I82 and R99 in the International Classification of Disease-10 codes were defined as a cardiovascular death. The subjects were evenly divided into 3 groups by the percentages of the changes in body fat (Δ%BF; decreased [Δ%BF <0.0%] vs. increased [Δ%BF 0.0–13.7%] vs. highly increased [Δ%BF ≥13.7%]). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance the covariate differences among the groups. Results The age was 51.2±8.5 years and 51.6% was male. Median observation duration was 163 (the interquartile range: 157–168) months. The all-cause death and cardiovascular death occurred most frequently in the decreased Δ%BF group and least frequent in the highly increased Δ%BF group in both unweighted and weighted cohort. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models showed that the risk of all-cause death was lower in the increased and highly increased Δ%BF groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.61 [0.47–0.80] and 0.24 [0.17–0.34], respectively) and the risk of cardiovascular death was lower in the highly increased Δ%BF group (HR 0.20 [0.08–0.48]), compared to those in the decreased Δ%BF group after adjustment for all covariates including physical activities and the changes in muscle mass. The risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death linearly decreased with increasing Δ%BF (HR 0.72 [0.67–0.77] and 0.70 [0.60–0.82], respectively). Conclusion The increase in body fat is associated with a lower risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular death in a middle-age general population, independently with physical activities and the changes in muscle mass.

Background Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a simple surrogate estimate of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity which was gold standard for measuring aortic stiffness, has been demonstrated to predict cardiovascular (CV) outcome. However, there was limited data on its predictive capacity for CV outcomes in the general population. The study aim was to investigate the independent association between ePWV and CV outcomes in general population. Methods A total of 10,030 subjects aged between 40 and 69 years were followed over 18-year period in the Ansan-Ansung cohort study. Levels of ePWV, which was calculated from an equation based on age and mean blood pressure, were categorized according to quartiles. A major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, stroke, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and cardiovascular death. Results The incidence rates of CV death, and MACE were 7.0% and 22.1% in the fourth (highest) quartile of ePWV and 0.1% and 4.5% in the first (lowest) quartile of ePWV. After adjusting for relevant covariates, patients with third and fourth quartile of ePWV showed significantly higher risk of CV death (hazard ratio [HR] 3.92; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.09–14.15 in third quartile and HR 8.53; 95% CI 2.13–34.10 in fourth quartile), and MACE (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.15–2.08 in third quartile and HR 1.56; 95% CI 1.05–2.32) compared to the reference of first (lowest) quartile of ePWV. However, there were no improvement of C statistic for CV death and MACE when adding ePWV to the Cox regression models with 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Conclusion These results suggest that ePWV predicted CV death and MACE in general population. The value of ePWV, a simple and useful indicator of aortic stiffness, is expected to serve as a potential marker to identify high risk groups of CV event in general population. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction Home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) is a useful tool to identify hypertension and to decide whether a patient's blood pressure (BP) is controlled. The use of automatized oscillometric BP measurement devices has become increasingly popular with help of information technology and internet of things to the devices. However, applying HBPM to daily clinical practices is still challenging, because most patients with hypertension are in age groups not familiar to digital devices and internet and high BP criteria using average home BP values are often useless in outpatient clinics without easily accessible average BP calculation tools. Therefore, we developed a simple and straightforward method to interpret HBPM through counts of BP ≥135/85 mmHg. Methods We simulated 400 cases of HBPM using a random number generator function in statistical software. The simulated average home systolic BP (SBP) and its standard deviation (SD) were 125±15 mmHg and 12±5 mmHg and the number of HBP readings was 24 times. The simulated diastolic BP (DBP) was randomly selected to 50–75% of the SBP. The validation of the binary interpretation method was conducted using actual HBPM data from 386 subjects in a rural area of South Korea. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was conducted, and linear regression and logarithmic models were fitted between the numbers of home BP ≥135/85 mmHg and mean BP. Hypertension was defined with average home BP ≥135/85 mmHg. Results In the simulated cohort, hypertension was presented in 197 cases (49.3%). The C-index of the numbers of BP readings ≥135/85 mmHg was 0.994 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.990–0.998), and ≥12 of 24 BP readings ≥135/85 mmHg showed a sensitivity of 95.4%, a specificity of 95.1% and an accuracy of 95.3% for the diagnosis of hypertension. In validation cohort, the numbers of home BP measurements varied from 8 to 81 times. The validation cohort similarly showed that the C-index of the ratio between the number of high BP readings (≥135/85 mmHg) to the number of BP measurements (R-NHBP/NBP) was 0.985 (95% CI, 0.976–0.994) and the best accuracy was shown at R-NHBP/NBP of ≥0.45. R-NHBP/NBP of ≥0.5 showed a sensitivity of 0.957, a specificity of 0.907 and an accuracy of 0.927. The accuracy of the R-NHBP/NBP of ≥0.5 decreased as SD and the range of SBP increased, whereas it did not change with the number of measurements (Figure 1). R-NHBP/NBP &lt;0.2 predicted normotension and R-NHBP/NBP &gt;0.8 predicted hypertension in 95% confidence. Mean widths of the 95 prediction intervals for the average SBP and DBP were 18.2 mmHg and 12.6 mmHg, respectively (Figure 2). Conclusion Counting the number of BP ≥135/85 mmHg can provide accurate assessments for the BP levels. R-NHBP/NBP of ≥0.5 is a simple and accurate marker of high BP in HBPM, and R-NHBP/NBP could be a useful tool to assess BP levels in patients practicing HBPM. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1 Figure 2

Background Clinical characteristics of patients with masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) are poorly defined, and few studies have reported on clinical predictors of MUCH. We investigated demographic, lifestyle, clinical and blood pressure (BP) characteristics in patients with MUCH and proposed a prediction model for MUCH. Method We analyzed 2044 subjects taking antihypertensive medication enrolled in the Korean Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (Kor-ABP) registry, who were categorized into controlled hypertension (n=481, normal office BP, normal 24-hour ABP), pseudo-uncontrolled hypertension (n=131, high office BP, normal 24-hour ABP), MUCH (n=380, normal office BP, high 24-hour ABP), and sustained uncontrolled hypertension (n=1,052; high office BP and high 24-hour ABP). Result The prevalence of MUCH increased with office systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP), whereas it was not associated with the numbers of antihypertensive drugs. But in patients with a high office SBP (≥130 mmHg), the prevalence of MUCH increased with decreasing numbers of antihypertensive drugs (interaction p=0.008; Figure 1A). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified high office SBPs and DBPs, prior stroke, dyslipidemia and single anti-hypertensive agent use as independent predictors of MUCH (Table 1). A prediction model using these predictors showed a high diagnostic accuracy (C-index 0.833) and a goodness of fit for the presence of MUCH (Figure 1B). Conclusion MUCH is associated with the borderline increase in office BP and the underuse of anti-hypertensive drugs as well as dyslipidemia and prior stroke, which underscores the importance of achieving the optimal BP control level in the high risk patients. The proposed model would accurately predict MUCH in patients with controlled office BP. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None