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An optimization based methodology was developed to calculate equivalent initial flaw sizes (EIFS) consistent with multiple-site damage in-service findings. The new methodology is compared with a simplified single-crack engineering approach that was previously used for a structural risk analysis. Calculated EIFS, fatigue life, and risk results resulting from both approaches are compared for the Royal Canadian Air Force in-service damage and nil findings at the CC-130 CW-1 location. For the considered case, the results suggest that the simplified engineering approach overestimates the probability of failure.

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