ObjectivesTo develop a nomogram to predict the likelihood of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC) among women after a previous caesarean section (CS).DesignA retrospective cohort study.SettingTwo secondary hospitals in Guangdong Province, China.ParticipantsInclusion criteria were as follows: pregnant women with singleton fetus, age ≥18 years, had a history of previous CS and scheduled for trial of labour after caesarean delivery (TOLAC). Patients with any of the following were excluded from the study: preterm labour (gestational age <37 weeks), two or more CSs, contradictions for vaginal birth, history of other uterine incision such as myomectomy, and incomplete medical records.Primary outcome measureThe primary outcome was VBAC, which was retrospectively abstracted from computerised medical records by clinical staff.ResultsOf the women who planned for TOLAC, 84.0% (1686/2006) had VBAC. Gestational age, history of vaginal delivery, estimated birth weight, body mass index, spontaneous onset of labour, cervix Bishop score and rupture of membranes were independently associated with VBAC. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in the prediction model was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) in the training cohort. The validation set showed good discrimination with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.79).ConclusionsTOLAC may be a potential strategy for decreasing the CS rate in China. The validated nomogram to predict success of VBAC could be a potential tool for VBAC counselling.

Background: To address the worldwide dramatically increased Cesarean section (CS) rate in the past decades, WHO has recommended the CS rate should not be higher than 10–15%. Whether it is achievable remains unknown.Methods: We collected the data of delivery from 2008 to 2017 in two typical regional hospitals in China: Longhua Hospital (national policies rigorously implemented) and Dongguan Hospital (national policies not rigorously implemented). We compared between the two hospitals the 10 years trend in annual rate of CS, standardized by age, education level, parity, and CS history, against the time of issuing relevant national, local, and hospital policies.Results: In 10 years, 42,441 women in Longhua and 36,935 women in Dongguan have given birth. China's first national policy on CS reduction was issued in 2010 and the formal relaxation of one-child policy was issued in 2015–2016. In Longhua, the standardized annual CS rate was around 35% in 2008–2009, which declined sharply since 2010 down to 13.1% in 2016 (p &lt; 0.001) and then leveled off. In contrast, in Dongguan, the rate stayed around 25% at the beginning, increased to 36% in 2011, decreased sharply to 27% in 2012, and leveled off until 2015 (p &lt; 0.001), and then bounced back to 35% in 2017. The proportion of women with the history of CS increased significantly in the two hospitals (both roughly from 6% before 2010 to 20% after 2015). Analyses stratified by modified Robson classification showed that CS rates reduced in all risk classes of delivery women in Longhua but only in the Robson class 2 group in Dongguan. Major complications did not differ by hospital.Conclusion: With vigorously implementing national policies at micro levels, the WHO-recommended CS rate could be achieved without increase in major complications.

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