No abstract

Various climate changes, including global warming, etc., have different impacts in different parts of the world and even lead to an increase in the fragile of social and governmental structures. Timmerman P proposed the concept of vulnerability in 1981 firstly. The Fund for Peace (FFP) started publishing the annual Fragile States Index (FSI)[1] in 2005. It is widely used by researchers, educators, and governments across the world. Based on FSI, this paper adds the influence of climate change on national vulnerability, and establishes a new model defined as States Fragility Assessment Model (SFAM) by using entropy weighting method. Taking the North African country Egypt with serious climate problem as an example, SFAM combines with grey prediction to analyze the vulnerability of Egypt and predict its trend from 2019 to 2032. Finally, this paper put forward effective suggestions for the current situation that the fragility of Egypt is decreasing year by year.