In real life and activities, music is everywhere. With the development of the times, Chinese pop music and traditional music have also continued to develop and present new characteristics. However, there is no fixed law in the development of music, and traditional analysis methods cannot capture the current situation of music development in time. Probability theory and mathematical statistics is a subject that studies possibility, which contains many analytical methods. To this end, the article takes the current situation of music teaching development as an example. From the perspective of probability theory and mathematical statistics, the correlation coefficient is introduced and incorporated into the analysis of the development status of popular music and traditional music. In this study, first the general methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics are analyzed, then related experiments from the mathematical level are designed, and a series of investigations are carried out. Finally, starting from the four groups of schools, teachers, parents, and students, the article raises the field of comparison from the campus to the society and focuses on comparing the comprehensive development status of Chinese popular music and traditional music. After a series of experiments and analysis, it can be concluded that the correlation between the students’ interest level and the development status of popular music reaches 7.33, and the correlation with the development status of traditional music reaches 7.61. At the same time, after analysis, it is found that most of the students prefer popular music, but they know little about Chinese traditional music. This fully shows that the comparison of the status quo of Chinese popular music and traditional music based on probability theory and mathematical statistics can intuitively describe the development status of the two, which is very important for promoting the national music and creating a good music environment.