This study aimed to develop a severity prediction system for pediatric patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) based on clinical and laboratory parameters recorded at disease onset. A retrospective cohort study including 130 patients with AP, aged 0 to 18 years, was conducted. Correlations between severe AP (SAP) and clinical and laboratory data were established. Parameters with a significant statistical correlation (P ≤ 0.05) were incorporated in logistic regression models, and receiver operating characteristic curves were generated. The best-performance cutoff points were calculated to propose a severity prediction score, for which sensitivity and specificity were determined. Thirty-eight cases (29.2%) were consistent with SAP. A value of ≥1 point yielded a sensitivity of 81.5% and specificity of 64.1% for SAP prediction, when using a score including blood urea nitrogen ≥12.5 mg/dL (1 point) or hemoglobin <13 mg/dL (1 point) as variables. The proposed severity score showed good performance in predicting SAP.

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A CT Severity Index ≥3 in children with acute pancreatitis who require CT assessment based on clinical criteria is associated with the need for admission to the Pediatric Special Care Unit. We found that pancreatic necrosis greater than 30% is the only tomographic parameter related to severe acute pancreatitis. New studies with a greater sample size are necessary to confirm this result.

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