[1] One year's worth of aerosol and surface irradiance data from September 2005 to August 2006 were obtained at Taihu, the second supersite for the East Asian Study of Tropospheric Aerosols: An International Regional Experiment (EAST-AIRE). Aerosol optical properties derived from measurements by a Sun photometer were analyzed. The aerosol data were used together with surface irradiance data to quantitatively estimate aerosol effects on surface shortwave radiation (SWR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). The annual mean aerosol optical depth at 500 nm is 0.77, and mean Å ngstrom wavelength exponent is 1.17. The annual mean aerosol single scattering albedo and mean aerosol asymmetry factor at 440 nm are 0.90 and 0.72, respectively. Both parameters show a weak seasonal variation, with small values occurring during the winter and larger values during the summer. Clear positive relationships between relative humidity and aerosol properties suggest aerosol hygroscopic growth greatly modifies aerosol properties. The annual mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the surface (ADRF) is À38.4 W m À2 and À17.8 W m À2 for SWR and PAR, respectively. Because of moderate absorption, the instantaneous ADRF at the top of the atmosphere derived from CERES SSF data is close to zero. Heavy aerosol loading in this region leads to À112.

The changes in summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, China, and the underlying mechanisms have been investigated using the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data during the period of 1961–2007. Results show that the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin, which exhibits a significant increasing trend during the last half century, is closely related to the summer middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. Mechanism analysis indicates that the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia results in a location farther south of the subtropical westerly jet over western and central Asia with anomalous southerly wind at lower levels and ascending motion prevailing over the Tarim Basin. Such anomalies in the atmospheric circulations provide favorable conditions for the enhanced summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Further analysis suggests that the weakened South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) could be potentially responsible for the middle and upper tropospheric cooling over central Asia. This is largely through the atmospheric responses to the diabatic heating effect of the SASM. A weakened SASM can result in an anomalous cyclone in the middle and upper troposphere over central Asia. The western part of the anomalous cyclone produces more cold air advection, which leads to the cooling. This study suggests indirect but important effects of the SASM on the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.

Based on the outputs of historical and future representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments produced by 28 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), future changes in climatic mean, interannual standard deviation (ISD), and long-term trends of the annual precipitation over central Asia (CA) have been estimated. Under different emission scenarios during the twenty-first century, the climatic mean and ISD (long-term trends) of the annual precipitation over CA projected by the five best models’ ensemble mean show very similar (quite different) spatial patterns to those in the twentieth century. Relatively stronger increasing rates (over 3 mm decade−1 in RCP2.6 and over 6 mm decade−1 in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are located over northern CA and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the situations in the twentieth century, the climatic mean, ISD, and long-term trends of the projected annual precipitation over most of CA under different emission scenarios exhibit robust increasing changes during the twenty-first century. The projected increasing changes in the climatic mean (ISD) of the CA annual mean range from 10% to 35% (10%–90%) under different emission scenarios with relatively large increases over Xinjiang, China (northern CA and Xinjiang). The increasing trends of the annual precipitation over most of CA are projected to intensify with relatively large increases (over 3–9 mm decade−1) located over northern CA, the Tian Shan Mountains, and northern Tibet during the twenty-first century. In addition, the intensities of the increasing changes in the climatic mean, ISD, and trends of CA annual precipitation are intensified with the emissions increased correspondingly. Further analyses of the possible mechanisms related to the projected changes in precipitation indicate that the increases of the annual precipitation over CA in the twenty-first century are mainly attributed to the enhanced precipitable water that results from strengthened water vapor transport and surface evaporation.

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