Development of human society (social), economic development, and environmental preservation are the three pillars of sustainable development. They must be implemented simultaneously and balanced. Two paradigms can be used to implement sustainable development, namely the economic development paradigm and the human development paradigm. This paper proposes a novel concept of human development in the Papua -Indonesia Province using a system thinking approach. This paper also proposes a novel modeling and simulation electrical system using a system dynamics method to fulfill human development demand. As an object of modeling and simulation, an electrical system in several regencies and municipality used. The simulation model results from the novel concept of human development in this study are projections of electricity demand and installed capacity of the 2016-2050 power plants in the BaU, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. Increased electricity demand and the installed capacity of the power plants are a function of the human development index and development acceleration. The average increase in electricity demand is 3.8583; 5.0652; 8.1779 and 7.1122 percent per year for the BaU scenario, 0.5088; 0.3404; 1.1578 and 0.6726 percent per year for the moderate scenario, and 0.5100; 0.3422; 1.1694 and 0.6760 percent per year for optimistic scenario. The average increase in installed capacity of the power plant is 3.
The National Development Planning Agency of Indonesia has adopted the concept of development based on customary territories in Papua in the 2015-2019 National Midterm Development Plan (RPJMN). This RPJMN aimed to accommodate the mandate of the Special Autonomy Law Number 21 of 2001 regarding Special Autonomy for Papua Province. However, the RPJMN used a top-down development approach that accommodates more national and international interests than local and customary territories' interests. The main objective of this paper is to propose a new concept of sustainable development that uses a bottom-up development approach to reconcile both interests above. The concept is supplemented with the road map and simulation to explore the progress of sustainable development. The modeling and simulation of sustainable development progress consist of the human development index (HDI), human development indicators, and electricity demand using the system dynamics model. In 2050, the lowest HDI is 63.87 in Mappi Regency. Life expectancy is 68.53 years; the schooling expecting years is 12.19 years; the schooling mean years is 6.60 years, and the expenditure per capita is Rp7,599,010, - In 2050, the highest HDI is 94.83 in Sorong Municipality. Life expectancy is 80.73 years; the schooling expecting years is 18.00 years; the schooling mean years is 15.00 years, and the expenditure per capita is Rp19,869,057 – In 2050, the electricity demand in Mappi Regency is 46,032 MWh. Meanwhile, the electricity demand in Sorong Municipality is 1,137,746 MWh.
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